#MEwx 11.25.14 – Pre-#Thanksgiving #NorEaster To Bring #Snow To Western #Maine

Latest Watches, Warnings and Advisories from NWS

Warnings

 

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A Rough Travel Day Ahead Of The Thanksgiving Holiday

WED

Low pressure forming off the Georgia / Florida coastline will make its way northeastward Wednesday. Cold air pouring in from Canada will meet the storm as it progresses, which will cause snow to fall over much of the Northeast corridor. Regardless of what means of travel, Thanksgiving Eve is going to be a rough one for many in the area.

Storm To Impact All Of Western Maine By Mid-Afternoon

STORMTIMES

This is an updated graphic from our friends at AccuWeather over the projected time frame of the event. Word to the wise: the earlier you can get on the road to your holiday destination, the better off. With Thanksgiving Eve traditionally the busiest travel day of the whole year, traffic will be force to contend with as it is; add a storm like this and it makes for much more of an adventure. If you can’t get on the road ahead of time, prepare for long, slow moving traffic on the major highways. Slushy roads are going to be a force to contend with.

Potential Storm Track

12zNAM7PMWed

12z NAM Tuesday Model IDEA of Storm Position & Pressure at 7 PM Wednesday

By 7 PM Wednesday, the storm appears to be positioned just south of Cape Cod near the 40° N / 70° W benchmark point. Most guidance is on board with a track close to Cape Cod, into the Gulf of Maine and clipping the nose of Nova Scotia its way into the Bay of Fundy. Because of that, coastal areas from MidCoast into DownEast Maine are likely to see a period of mixing and/or outright rain early Wednesday evening before changing to snow. For coastal areas south of Rockland, there is a slight chance for mixing, but by-in-large this is a heavy wet snow event.

Wind & Heavy Wet Snow May Bring Power Outages

12z NAM Wind Gust IDEA via AccuWeather

12z NAM Wind Gust IDEA via AccuWeather

As with any of these types of storms, wind is always a factor and this one is no different. Given the fact that heavy wet snow and enough of it will be a factor, wind may cause branches to fall, causing spotty power outages in areas. The worst of the wind appears along the coastal plain between 7 PM  Wednesday and 1 AM Thursday. With the forecast track, MidCoast areas are the most susceptible for higher wind gusts.

Also with the wind, is the direction of it. Most northeasterly winds Wednesday afternoon shift to a more northerly direction Wednesday night. The main precipitation shield appears to hit the region between 6 PM (Southern) and 9 PM (Capital District / MidCoast). With the northerly winds pouring in from Quebec, this will likely rob the mountains out of some snowfall.  At this point, it does not appear that the heavier precipitation will advance too far beyond the Fryeburg to Livermore Falls to Waterville areas. There will still be snow falling in the mountains & foothills, just not as intense as it appears to south of that line.

Updated Snowfall Prediction

SNOWMAP1125

The predicted snowfall map has been fine tuned after reviewing model data. As for reasons I have mentioned, I think the mountains lose a certain amount of snowfall due to the dry northerly winds, along with factoring in the main precipitation field and storm track. South of the foothills into the coastal interior, storm totals of 10-12″ are possible in spots. Due to the high water content of the snow (roughly 7 or 8:1 snow to water ratio) that will likely keep snow depths on the downside. If this were a colder, more drier snow, many areas would likely see a foot of snow. Coastal areas east of the Maine Turnpike over southern areas and south of Route 1 may see a brief period of sleet, along with a very pasty, slushy mess, which accounts for slightly lower totals in that region.

As with any of these events, there is always a “surprise” factor. Coastal areas (Scarborough to Belfast) will be very close to the most intense snowfall. Any subtle changes in forecast track will bump totals upward. This forecast track is not completely set in stone.

Western Maine Weather Five-Day Outlook

FD112514

After some morning flurries, the rest of Thanksgiving Day appears to remain mostly cloudy & cool. The first of three very chilly nights leads into Black Friday when a weak wave slides through the region that may kick of a flurry over the mountains and coastal areas. A bitter cold start to Saturday makes way for high cirrus clouds dimming the sun, with clouds on the increase late in the day. A southwesterly flow develops early Saturday night and warmer tries to work in aloft, which may touch off some flurries & squalls. The holiday weekend rounds out with a mix of sun & clouds for most areas, with a slight chance of a sprinkle and more clouds than sun in the mountains.

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Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information.

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Posted in General, NorEaster, Winter 2014-15

#MEwx 11.24.14 – A Drier Tuesday for Western #Maine; All Eyes On #Thanksgiving #NorEaster

Latest Watches, Warnings and Advisories from the National Weather Service

nwsadvisories

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One More Day of Above Normal Temperatures

Tue

Tomorrow will be our last day above normal as winds slowly shift from SW to NW. Expect clearing skies for the morning before clouds begin to increase late in the day ahead of our next storm system. Highs will range from 44 to 55 with the warmest temps along the coast. Tomorrow night will feature continually falling temps with more clouds building in as our storm approaches from the south. Lows will range from 26-38, again warmest on the coast. Enjoy the warm weather while it lasts because winter is on the way! - Jack Sillin

Potential NorEaster to Impact The Region For Midweek

WVloop

Enhanced Water Vapor Image Noon Monday

All the players are on the table for a potential disruptive storm for the Northeast Corridor. The European model has been quite adamant about the storm forming for several days now. Two key factors in this set up are the location of the stalled front that will move offshore tomorrow, and just how strong the kicker energy drives the upper level trough into the stalled front, which causes the upper level energy to form a storm off the southeast coast. This is what meteorologists call a Miller A Storm.  The European has an excellent track record in predicting these storms, and hence why there is a justifiable amount of concern for it. With the holiday weekend approaching, it makes matters more of a concern.

stormtimes

The timeline above from our partners at AccuWeather gives a rough idea the progress of the storm. At this point the greatest impact of the storm will come for Maine early evening Wednesday into the early hours of Thursday. By daylight Thanksgiving, areas of snow showers are likely through the morning into early afternoon. While not at the velocity of the snowfall of overnight Wednesday, it may be annoying enough to keep crews out treating roadways in the foothills and the mountains well into Thursday afternoon.

snowmap1124

This is the first idea for snowfall for the duration of the event. There are cases that can be made where this storm could both over perform and perhaps under perform. Forecast track is not a complete certainty. This idea on snowfall totals is under the idea the center of low pressure will track over Cape Cod and clip the northwest tip of Nova Scotia on the way into the Bay of Fundy.

Given the nature of the ocean temperature, its possible for temperatures to rise and cause rain. Guidance is also hinting that warm air will try to creep in at the 10,000 foot level along the coast, and cause a period of sleet. This will knock down potential snow totals. However, that window is quite narrow in the early evening hours of Wednesday. The majority of precipitation from this event will fall in the form of flakes as it appears for now.

We will continue to track this storm, and will update on Facebook Tuesday morning, at noon, and right here on WesternMEwx.com tomorrow evening. - Mike Haggett

Western Maine Weather Five Day Outlook

Northeastern Weather 5-Day Outlook November 25th-November 30th

Western Maine Weather 5-Day Outlook November 25th-November 30th

The rest of the Western Maine Weather 5-Day outlook consists of much cooler temperatures, but drier conditions. Lows Thursday night will dip into the single digits for many interior locations, leading to a cold night for Black Friday shopper’s. Friday will be mostly sunny with the chance for a pop-up flurry, with highs 25-32 degrees. Friday night lows dip back into the single digits for many. Temperatures make a little bit of a rebound Saturday, however clouds will move in ahead of our next potential snow-maker Sunday. Stay tuned for more information on that, and have a great evening!  -Alex Reed

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Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information.

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Posted in General, NorEaster, Winter 2014-15

11-23-14 #MEwx Warm and Rainy Weather to Begin the Week for Western #Maine ; #Thanksgiving #Snowstorm?

Warm and Rainy Weather to Begin The Work Week

GraphicMonNov23

18Z GFS Model Forecast for Monday, November 23 2014. Credit to: Weather Bell

Warm and rainy weather is set to begin the work week in Western Maine. Monday morning, a warm front will pass through the area. This will bring initially the possibility for some light freezing rain in sheltered mountain valleys, with a mix of rain and snow possible for areas away from the coast. This mix will quickly turn to all rain as the sun rises. Periods of rain will then move into the area through the morning hours, with precipitation tapering to showers during the afternoon, from west to east. Winds will also pick up overnight tonight into the morning hours, gusting 35-45 MPH at times. This has the potential to cause scattered power outages, especially to outage-prone areas. Total rainfall amounts should be less than a half inch. It will be a warm storm, with highs possibly reaching 60 degrees Monday for southern and coastal areas.  

Thanksgiving Storm Potential Increases

Take2

Precipitation Type Wed-Thu

The potential for a coastal low pressure system to effect the area mid-week appears to be increasing. Most models do now indicate a low pressure system traveling up the East coast. The exact track is still up in the air. Keep in mind this is still three days out, and still POTENTIAL. For right now, I’m thinking that the low pressure travels just offshore, causing snow to begin Wednesday evening for ALL areas. Snow could fall quite heavily overnight Thursday. Early Thursday morning, however, warmer air will ride in above the surface. For the coast, this will likely mean a change to sleet, then eventually plain rain, before precipitation comes to an end early Thursday morning. However, inland just a bit, in the foothills, precipitation could turn to freezing rain and sleet, with some snow from time to time. This will likely stay all snow for the far north and higher terrain. Again, I’d like to emphasize the word POTENTIAL here, folks. This is forecasting, it can and will change before the event, so I recommend you stay tuned to Western Maine Weather for the next couple of days as the details continue to be ironed out with this storm.

Western Maine Weather 5-Day Outlook

5-DayNOV23

Western Maine Weather 5-Day Outlook November 24-November 29

The rest of the 5-Day outlook consists of mostly sunny conditions Tuesday, with a cold front moving through during the day. Temperatures will likely fall during the day Tuesday, with the high temps you see on the graphic likely being achieved around 8 AM. Wednesday will be mostly cloudy with snow showers. Thursday will feature clouds with a wintry mix in the morning. Friday will be MUCH cooler with highs not reaching above freezing and partly sunny conditions.

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Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information.

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Posted in General

11-22-14 #MEwx Saturday Evening Update – Period of Mixed Precipitation Tonight; Warmer and Rainy Early Week; #Thanksgiving #Snowstorm?

Latest Watches, Warnings and Advisories from the National Weather Service

National Weather Service Headlines as of 5:20 PM EST Nov 22

National Weather Service Headlines as of 4:55 PM EST Nov 22

**For the latest information from the National Weather Service, please CLICK HERE

Good evening, everyone! Alex Reed here with your Western Maine Weather evening update. Tonight I expect patchy freezing rain/sleet/snow to move primarily into the mountains, with scattered mixed showers elsewhere. Due to this, the National Weather Service has issued a Freezing Rain Advisory, which is in effect for the mountains of Western Maine, through 7 AM Sunday morning. The radar image below shows patchy mixed precipitation moving in from the west. Lows tonight will range from 25 to 38 degrees

Radar Image as of 5:15 PM EST November 22 Courtesy of: AccuWeather.com

Radar Image as of 5:15 PM EST November 22 Courtesy of: AccuWeather.com

Warmer Weather Returns Early-Week Along with Some Rain

Warmer weather is poised to make a return Sunday-Tuesday. Expect clouds to clear out early Sunday, but increase again later ahead of our next rain maker Monday. Highs Sunday will range from between 39 and 47 degrees.

Warmer Air Moves In Sunday. Map Courtesy of: AccuWeather.com

Warmer Air Moves In Sunday. Map Courtesy of: AccuWeather.com

Monday low pressure will pass to our west, initially dragging a warm front through during the pre-dawn hours. Scattered showers are possible with the front. Precipitation is then set to move in from south to north during the course of Monday morning. Due to the timing and position of low pressure, this should be primarily a rain event. Rainfall totals will be a general 1-2″. Winds will also increase during the day on Monday, with gusts to 40 MPH possible in the mid-morning – early afternoon hours. Highs on Monday will be much warmer (although it won’t feel it, with the rain and wind), ranging between 42 and 51 degrees. Precipitation will begin to move out Monday evening, tapering to showers by midnight Tuesday. 

Cooler Weather Returns Tuesday and Wednesday

Tuesday will start out warm, with temperatures similar to Monday afternoon. However, a cold front will move through early, bringing drier air and increasing sun, but lowering temps. Afternoon temperatures will like be in the mid 30s for most on Tuesday, with highs being achieved in the early morning hours, ranging from 41 to 51 degrees. Due to the warm nature of Tuesday morning and the time from when precipitation ends to when temperatures drop below freezing, I am not very concerned about black ice at this point. Wednesday high temperatures will be around the same as temperatures Tuesday afternoon, ranging from 32 to 41 degrees. Clouds will increase on Wednesday ahead of our next storm, which I will talk about below.

Now, About Thanksgiving

The Thanksgiving forecast is ALWAYS a tricky one. There have been many years (potentially including this year) where storms have disrupted travel in the Northeast. Last year, a low pressure system moved inland, bringing with it high winds and heavy rain, but no snow. This year I am getting concerned about the potential for a low pressure system to develop Tuesday near North Carolina, and track parallel to the East Coast. There are many, many track potentials for this system, which determines the eventual impacts. The ECMWF model is persistent that a storm will travel up the east coast, then inland towards Maine and has been for the past few runs. This would bring mainly rain to the coast and foothills, with big snows in the mountains and far Northern areas. We then have the GFS (Seems like a nice compromise at the moment), which tracks the storm just offshore, bringing some light to moderate snow to coastal areas, with little or nothing in the mountains and the far north. We then have the Canadian model, which takes the low offshore, no problem. I urge you to stay tuned in the coming days as this forecast gets ironed out, to determine any potential impacts. 

Thanksgiving Storm Track Potentials and Impacts. Map Courtesy of: AccuWeather

Thanksgiving Storm Track Potentials and Impacts. Map Courtesy of: AccuWeather

Western Maine Weather 5-Day Outlook

Western Maine Weather 5-Day Outlook - Issued Nov 22 2014

Western Maine Weather 5-Day Outlook – Issued Nov 22 2014

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Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information.

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe! 

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Posted in General

11.21.14 #MEwx Temps Rise Gradually For Western #Maine; Windswept #Rain Monday; #Thanksgiving A Concern

Saturday Starts A Brief Warm Up

SAT

After a bone chilling night with temps starting Saturday in the single digits over the north country to near 20° at the coast, the mercury slowly begins to march upward. Arctic high pressure responsible for the latest blast moves offshore off the MidAtlantic states, and sets up a southwesterly flow, which brings up warmer air from the south. As cold as the air has been for the past few days, it’s going to take awhile for interior areas of the region to climb above freezing, while the areas south of the foothills will notice the difference fairly quickly. With the warmer air, clouds are likely to increase in the afternoon, more noticeable in the mountains. Highs will reach the upper 20s north to upper 30s south. Winds out of the southwest will range from 10-20 mph.

For Saturday night, a few light snow showers / squalls are possible which may slick the roads up a bit. Temperatures to start Sunday morning will range in the low 20s to low 30s.

Sunday sees a few spot rain showers in the mountains, but the rest of the region appears dry. More sunshine further south through the afternoon, then all regions see clouds on the increase late in the day. Highs for Sunday range in the upper 30s north to low 50s along the shores.

A Rainy To Start Thanksgiving Week

12z GFS T1534 Beta Model at

12z GFS T1534 Beta Model IDEA at 1 PM Monday

A very intense storm will begin to take shape early Sunday as a storm over southern Saskatchewan merges with a developing storm over eastern Colorado. The two combine energy over the Great Lakes Sunday night into the wee hours of Monday morning. A warm front develops out ahead of it and advances into the region. Rain showers and perhaps a thundershower are possible during the day. Given the intense nature of the storm, winds will pick up out of the south at 25-35 mph; all coastal areas may see gusts in the 40-45 mph range. Folks in areas susceptible to power outages should plan accordingly.  At this point, it does not appear to have much rain associated with this, roughly a half-inch or so. Flooding may not be an issue, but flying debris may be.

12z GFS T1534 Beta Model IDEA for Max High Temperatures Between 1-7 PM

12z GFS T1534 Beta Model IDEA for Max High Temperatures Between 1-7 PM

Yes, this model indicates 60° is possible over far southern York County, and the 12z European Model agrees in similar fashion. Many coastal interior areas up into the Capital District appear to push well into the 50s. Take a picture. This may be the last time the region sees temps this high for awhile.

Western Maine Weather Five Day Outlook

FD112114

The rest of the five day outlook shows showers ending early on Tuesday, with a cooling westerly wind drying the region out. Wednesday starts off cool and mostly sunny, but what happens after that is a bit of a question mark.

…And About Thanksgiving

12z GFS T1534 Beta Model IDEA for

12z GFS T1534 Beta Model IDEA for 1 AM Thursday

As I mentioned yesterday on Facebook about the potential for a storm to impact the region, that idea is still on the table. Models are NOT in complete agreement on this idea, however, but the potential is there. The Friday 12z GFS parallel (T1534) beta model &  the last two runs of the European are similar in ideas of a coastal system developing. In comparison, the Canadian GGEM & operational GFS aren’t interested in this idea for now. There are still a number of question marks on whether it will develop closer the shorelines or further offshore out of harms way. The one thing consistent in all guidance at this point is that cold air appears to have a grip over the region, which if a storm does develop, would mean snow. Timing, amounts, potential impacts are too far out at this point to dare a guess. Consider this a friendly advisement to stay tuned on this.

Western Maine Weather will continue to track and advise in our upcoming updates.

The next update will come tomorrow morning on Facebook. Thanks as always for your support of Western Maine Weather! ~Mike

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Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information.

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe! 

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Posted in General, Winter 2014-15

11-20-14 #MEwx THURSDAY EVENING UPDATE – CHILLY TOMORROW AND SATURDAY, NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT WEEK?

Good Evening Everyone! For the people who don’t know me, I am Bobby Koenig, I have been forecasting the weather since 2011 and just recently joined Western Maine Weather. I’m here this evening filling in for Mike while he’s busy. I’m excited to be posting here and can’t wait to start doing more stuff.

Friday

Tomorrow will definitely be the coldest day of this stretch of weather that we’ve had. Temperatures will be around 30 degrees with some spots not even making it into the 30s and staying in the upper teens. There will also still be a possibility of some snow flurries in the mountains tomorrow with northwest winds 15-25 mph.10407195_10152809202111276_1455870400766818286_n

Friday night will feature mostly clear skies with low temperatures in the single-digits to around 20. Northwest winds around 10-15 mph will continue to gust up to 30 mph.

Potential Storm Monday

On Monday we will see some rain as a low pressure system in Canada will drag a trough through the area. this will bring us some rain but since we will be on the warm side of the jetstream we won’t see any snow. High temperatures on Monday will climb up into the 50s which is warm for this time of year.

1660224_10152809202166276_8783982283888870693_n

12z GFS 6 hour Precipitation Forecast For Monday

Thanksgiving Cool down

We will warm up for the first part of next week but by Thanksgiving we will start to cool off to around normal temperatures for time of year. Although this graphic doesn’t say anything about rain late next week we are watching the possibility of some occurring. Stay tuned!

10805645_10152809202141276_5445497045257984666_n

Western Maine Weather 5-Day Outlook

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Thanks for all of the support, it means a lot to the team. Next update will be Tomorrow morning on Facebook. Have a great Thanksgiving Everyone!

~Bobby Koenig (@KoenigWX on Twitter)


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Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information.

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe! 

Posted in General

11-19-14 #MEwx WEDNESDAY EVENING UPDATE – CHILLY LATE-WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WARMER NEXT WEEK

Good evening, all! Alex Reed here with your Western Maine Weather evening update on this Wednesday.

Chilly Late Week

We are definitely in for a chilly late week. Tonight, lows will level out between 13 and 22 degrees, with snow showers possible for all areas. Thursday will still feel cold, with snow showers retreating to the mountains and mostly sunny skies (more clouds in the mountains). Highs will average 28 degrees to 41 degrees. 10290625_10152807514746276_6425128507417409332_nFriday mountain snow showers will remain possible, with highs much cooler than Thursday’s, averaging between 22 and 32 degrees. Saturday will feel similar to Friday, with sun in the morning, and clouds on the increase during the afternoon. Highs will average out between 22 and 34 degrees. Here’s a map of projected wind chills around 7 AM Friday, as you can see, many areas will see wind chills in the teens:

10731171_10152807514791276_9073190176802511741_nSaturday will be similar to Friday. Clouds will however be on the increase, and highs will average between 22 and 34 degrees.

Sunday will be a bit warmer than Saturday, with a shower possible in the mountains, and highs averaging between 36 and 48 degrees.

Warmer Early Next Week, With Some Rain

1505203_10152807514741276_9040403252469567738_n

Most models are now indicating that a warm front will cross the area early Monday, which could bring some showers. Low pressure will then approach from the west, spreading precipitation into the area as it does so. The main precipitation should hold off until the late-morning hours of Monday. This will likely be an all rain event for the area, which is a relief after the past few weeks. It will also be much warmer, with highs on Monday ranging between 46 and 58 degrees. As of right now, the rain doesn’t appear to be enough to cause much concern of flooding, but some urban and poor drainage flooding is possible, as usual. Areas with any snow on the ground will be more vulnerable to that.

Western Maine Weather 5-Day Outlook

10367813_10152807514801276_5593291785300990612_n

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Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information.

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