12.19.14 #MEwx Coastal #Snow Showers Possible For Western #Maine Saturday; #Christmas Update

Fall Ends Quietly

SAT

Saturday brings the end to the autumnal equinox, and without fanfare. High pressure and mostly sunny skies appear to rule the day. Temperatures top out in the 20s for most of the region. An east/northeast wind develops in the afternoon which may bring some snow showers / flurries to the coastal areas. Accumulations may be enough to dust surfaces to perhaps as much as a half inch for extreme southern York County.

A Wet & Wild Christmas Likely

cmc_precip_mslp_east_23

Guidance is still having all kinds of fun trying to solve what will happen midweek, but at this point all are in agreement that this appears to be a liquid precipitation event for all areas. What snow pack is left over interior areas is likely in jeopardy to melt. The jury is still out on how much this will impact ski country for now. For folks travelling Christmas Eve night, expect a nasty windswept rain. Concerns for flooding are possible with this event, as well as coastal impacts.  The set up is looking somewhat similar to the 1994 Christmas Nor’Easter with Fujiwhara style effect, tropical characteristics, and polar attributes.

While Christmas Eve & night appear to be a wet one, concern remains for Christmas Day as cold air works into the region after the frontal passage. Temperatures appear to drop all day, and the threat for freezing and wrap-around snow showers are possible. Coastal areas will see astronomical high tides also through the period, and with a strong southeast wind pushing the ocean water toward land, minor storm surge, flooding, splash over, and beach erosion are possible at the times of high tide.

There is still a lot of details to figure out with this event. Please check back for updates over the weekend.

Western Maine Weather 5-Day Outlook

FD121914

Thank you for your support of Western Maine Weather! All of us strive to bring you comprehensive detailed forecasts that you won’t find anywhere else in the region. Your likes & shares on Facebook, as well as re-tweets on Twitter are much appreciated. You may not like the weather, but our goal is that you’ll like the way it is presented to you… straightforward, timely, and honestly without the hype. 

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Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information.

From all of us at Western Maine Weather, we wish you a wonderful & memorable holiday season. 

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe! 

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Posted in General, Winter 2014-15

12.18.14 #MEwx Some Sun To End The Week For Western #Maine; Weekend & #Christmas Outlook

High Pressure Works In For Friday

thu

It’s been nearly ten days since folks in some part of the mountains have seen sunshine for any period of time, and it appears that Friday will bring some sunshine to the north country and elsewhere. I can’t rule out a few early morning clouds around, but by midday, most areas will see more sun than clouds. High pressure will slowly slide to the east and will be the dominant feature for the area for the weekend.

Saturday appears to be decent early winter day. An onshore flow may develop in the afternoon which may bring a flurry or snow shower to the coast toward evening.

A weak disturbance will bring a few more clouds for Sunday, and a chance for snow showers region wide. Monday appears to be similar as Sunday, with partial sun, with flurries & squalls about.

Looking Ahead To The Holiday Week

12z Canadian GGEM Model Idea at 8 AM Tuesday

12z Canadian GGEM Model Idea at 8 AM Tuesday

High pressure moves eastward come the first of next week. The major storm that models were concerned about forming for Sunday morning appears to get its act together off the DelMarVa late Monday. This is an intriguing set up as double barrel energy moves across the Northern Plains of the United States and the Southern Prairies of Canada. This presents a possible “Fujiwhara Effect” type-scenario which has the ability to juggle up potential weather solutions. As the potential for a major Sunday/Monday storm busted, the sense of this forecaster is models are struggling with this current pattern. This is cause for a concern.

12z Canadian GGEM Model IDEA at 1 AM Christmas Day

12z Canadian GGEM Model IDEA at 1 AM Christmas Day

The “Fujiwhara Effect” is synonymous with tropical systems where two systems work around each other and feed off of each other’s energy. This “storm dance” for a lack of better terms makes it hard to figure out. The 12z Canadian idea of a triple-barrel threat with Fujiwhara Effect attributes makes the forecast a bit more interesting to track. With the cold northern jet merging with the warmer southern jet, position along with timing of energy & precipitation arrival is critical.

christmaseve

 

Some models are calling for a strong “inside runner” that moves into Eastern Ontario, bringing heavy rain & wind for New England, eventually a cold front that forms in the midst of all of this energy will move through the region. When that happens, there is a certain snow / flash freeze threat that comes along with that. This of course happens if the Great Lakes low gains the upper hand. If is doesn’t, it is a much different situation, with likely a much different solution for the Northeastern United States.

christmas

Time will tell how this is going to play out, but it is reasonable to think at this point snow and/or flash freezing will be a factor here. It’s too early to nail down specific details on how & when this is going to play out. In any case of a double or triple barrel low threat, one of those energy sources is going to come out the winner when it is all over. At the very least, it appears to be a very windy Christmas day, with a threat of significant precipitation. What form it lands on the surface and the impacts of that on holiday travel & activity remains a mystery for now.

Again, models are still quite volatile. It would be wise to stay updated on this event.

Western Maine Weather 5-Day Outlook

FD121814

 

Thank you for your support of Western Maine Weather! All of us strive to bring you comprehensive detailed forecasts that you won’t find anywhere else in the region. Your likes & shares on Facebook, as well as re-tweets on Twitter are much appreciated. You may not like the weather, but our goal is that you’ll like the way it is presented to you… straightforward, timely, and honestly without the hype. 

Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information.

From all of us at Western Maine Weather, we wish you a wonderful & memorable holiday season. 

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe! 

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Posted in General, Winter 2014-15

12-17-14 #MEwx Snowy Start To Thursday, Next Storm Threat Arrives Sunday

Snowy Start To Thursday

WMW p29

Hello everyone! Jack Sillin here with the evening update featuring some of everything – snow, sun, and storms.

Tomorrow will be a day of transition as low pressure moves into Canada. Expect residual rain to change to snow tonight as cold air moves into the region from the north. Snow will establish itself more firmly in the mountains with NW facing slopes seeing the most snow. Accumulations will range from near 6″ in the mountains to a coating at the coast. Snow will wind down late morning at the coast and will stick around to dusk in the mountains. NW winds will be gusty at times tomorrow and will bring upslope clouds/flurries to the mountains and clear skies to the coast. Highs tomorrow will range from 27-36 highest temps along the coast.

Clear skies return for most Friday as high pressure crests over the region. Expect lighter winds and more sun for all along with slightly cooler temps. Highs look to be mainly in the 20’s with some coastal areas hitting the freezing mark.

Saturday looks to be the last day of guaranteed no precip before the storm train rolls into town later in the weekend. Expect increasing clouds but to what degree depends largely on the track and intensity of our first storm due to arrive sometime Sunday. Highs will range from 20-31.

Multiple Storm Threats Late Weekend/Early Next Week

12Z GFS Showing 500mb Heights and Vorticy for 7PM Sunday

12Z GFS Showing 500mb Heights and Vorticy for 7PM Sunday

Our weather pattern will be getting a little more active next week with multiple storm threats to watch out for. The first one looks to arrive late in the weekend possibly extending into Monday. This first threat does not appear to be a big one and the main effect at this point looks to be clouds with some coastal rain/snow possible as well. The map above shows the piece of energy responsible for the storm and where it tracks will be key in determining the track and intensity of the storm. For now, a cloudy Sunday is a good bet with rain/snow possible. Highs 21-33.

Monday looks to be the break in the action as one storm pulls away and another approaches. Expect lots of clouds with the chance for rain and snow. There are lots of questions that still have yet to be answered but clouds look to be a safe bet similar to Sunday. Highs will range from 28-35. Again, the amount of clouds as well as rain and snow will depend on the tracks of the storms that will affect the region.

Our next storm threat arrives on Tuesday which, as of now, looks to be more wet than white. Still lots of uncertainty and lots of time to change but some sort of precip is likely. There are indications that this storm could be quite strong so winds could be an issue but again, there is still time for this to change.

Full WMW 5-Day Forecast

WMW p30

 

Our next update will be on Facebook tomorrow morning.

Thank you for your support of Western Maine Weather! All of us strive to bring you comprehensive detailed forecasts that you won’t find anywhere else in the region. Your likes & shares on Facebook, as well as re-tweets on Twitter are much appreciated. You may not like the weather, but our goal is that you’ll like the way it is presented to you… straightforward, timely, and honestly without the hype. 

Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information.

From all of us at Western Maine Weather, we wish you a wonderful & memorable holiday season. 

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe! 

Posted in General, Winter 2014-15

12.16.14 #MEwx Wintry Mix Wednesday and Thursday, Snow This Weekend?

Latest From The National Weather Service

NWSUPDATE1216

Watches/Warnings/Advisories As of 600 PM Tuesday

FOR THE LATEST  UPDATES FROM NWS GRAY ► CLICK HERE

Wintry Mix Wednesday and Thursday

StormThu

Wednesday Dec 17. Courtesy of: Accuweather

Rain will develop across the area Wednesday night. With temperatures around freezing for some areas, mainly inland, a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will be likely at the onset of precipitation. Temperatures will likely fall a bit as precipitation moves in. Precipitation will also become more steady as we continue to move through the night-time hours. Wednesday morning, a well defined coastal low will develop near Cape Ann Massachusetts and move Northeast. Most areas will likely change to all rain for a brief period Wednesday morning. However, as the day goes on, the wind flow aloft will change with the passage of this low pressure system, bringing in colder air. Rain will begin changing to snow from north to south during the afternoon, with the rain snow line probably making it towards the foothills as get into Wednesday evening. Overnight Thursday, the rain snow line will continue to make it’s way south, making it all the way to the coast by early Thursday morning. As far as accumulations go, 4-8 inches can be expected in the mountains, with 3-6 inches in the foothills, and a dusting to an inch for much of the coastal plain. wedsnowmap

Still Watching This Weekend

page (2)

Saturday. Courtesy of: Accuweather

For the past few days we here at Western Maine Weather have been watching the potential for a coastal low pressure system to impact the area with some snow. That potential still exists today as afternoon models continue rolling in. As for right now, not much has changed. There are essentially two scenarios. Scenario 1: Low pressure develops off of New Jersey and rides just offshore Sunday and Monday, bringing the potential for some snowfall to the area. While the low pressure that would ride up the coast in this scenario does not look as strong as it did Monday, there would still be some travel difficulties and the potential exists for a plowable snow. Scenario 2: Low pressure fizzles off of the coast of New Jersey, with little to no impact on the area. Both scenarios are feasible at the moment, and it’s difficult to tell which one will play out. Stay tuned to Western Maine Weather over the next couple of days, as we continue to iron out the details on this potential system.

Western Maine Weather 5-Day Outlook

5-Day Outlook Dec 17-21

5-Day Outlook Dec 17-21

The rest of the Western Maine Weather 5-Day Outlook consists of mostly sunny but colder conditions Friday, with partly sunny conditions and potentially a scattered flurry Saturday.

-Alex Reed

Thank you for your support of Western Maine Weather! All of us strive to bring you comprehensive detailed forecasts that you won’t find anywhere else in the region. Your likes & shares on Facebook, as well as re-tweets on Twitter are much appreciated. You may not like the weather, but our goal is that you’ll like the way it is presented to you… straightforward, timely, and honestly without the hype. 

Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information.

From all of us at Western Maine Weather, we wish you a wonderful & memorable holiday season. 

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe! 

Posted in General

12.15.14 #MEwx – Unsettled Rest Of Week For Western #Maine; Weekend #NorEaster?

Tuesday Starts Another Unsettled Trend

tue

Warm air moves in at the lower level of the atmosphere Monday evening into Tuesday, and with it come low level cloudiness that the region will be under for most of the day. The warmer low level air will cause some instability in the form of light showers of rain (coastal region) and snow (mountains, foothills). Icy spots on area roadways are possible, so be on alert as you are travelling Tuesday. With the cloud cover, the mercury will have a difficult time moving up on the day, with the mountains likely to stay at or below freezing, and coastal areas hitting the mid-30s.

Mixed Bag On Tap For Wednesday

WEDTHU

A storm over the Midwestern United States tracks eastward Tuesday, and will approach the region in the wee hours of Wednesday morning. By the morning commute, the area will see areas of rain (coastal areas), mix (coastal interior) and snow (mountains & foothills). As the region has experienced recently, cold air damming may play a factor over interior areas in the form of sleet & freezing rain. Southern mountain valleys are likely to see snow change to sleet and freezing rain, closer to the border chances increase for snow to stay that way longer. Higher peaks in ski country may see upwards of 8-12″ of fresh snow from this event. All in all, the entire region can expect roughly one half to a full inch of liquid precipitation from this event. How it lands on the surface depends on the area.

GGEM1PMWed

12z Canadian GGEM Model IDEA for Sea Level Pressure & LIQUID precipitation previous 6 hours as of 1 PM Wednesday

The position of the storm appears to be just southeast of Cape Cod at 7 AM Wednesday, then track into the MidCoast area by early afternoon, then near Bangor by evening. The storm will intensify a bit as energy transfers between the low over Quebec and the coastal low as it moves into Aroostook County early Thursday, then into New Brunswick Thursday night. This will keep the region unsettled with snow & rain showers through the period. Snow showers will likely to continue in the mountains Friday as down sloping winds from the northwest will bring in colder air, and keep that region unsettled.

wedsnowmap

Two day snow totals here by the time it is finished. Coastal areas may start off with a bit of snow, but at this point it may be enough to cause slick roads early Wednesday, then change to rain. Interior coastal areas may see upwards of an inch before changeover by mid-morning. Interior areas up into the foothills may see upwards of 3″ with some icing. Ski country again appears to make out well with this event.

Storm Watch For The Weekend

weekendstorm

At this point, there are two possible scenarios playing out in regards to the weekend event. One is the low impact idea which keeps the storm more like a disturbance and tracks it off into the Atlantic will the Southeast states seeing precipitation and may graze the Mid-Atlantic areas. The other idea is a more northeasterly track through the DelMarVa and off the the coast of Cape Cod by Sunday evening. While most operational guidance has tracked the storm more to the south in today’s model runs, ensembles and control runs are still rather scattered with how this is going to play out. An area of high pressure moving into Western Quebec, its position and strength in proximity to the storm appears to tell the tale on how this will play out.

Stay tuned for further updates on this in the coming days.

 Western Maine Weather 5-Day Outlook

FD121514

Thank you for your support of Western Maine Weather! All of us strive to bring you comprehensive detailed forecasts that you won’t find anywhere else in the region. Your likes & shares on Facebook, as well as re-tweets on Twitter are much appreciated. You may not like the weather, but our goal is that you’ll like the way it is presented to you… straightforward, timely, and honestly without the hype. 

Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information.

From all of us at Western Maine Weather, we wish you a wonderful & memorable holiday season. 

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe! 

 

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Posted in General, Winter 2014-15

12.14.14 #MEwx – #Sunny Day For Monday For Western #Maine; #Showers Returning On Wednesday

A Beautiful Day For Monday

WMWACCU 12-14-14

A better day is on tap for tomorrow with high pressure moving into the area. This will bring us nice weather for tomorrow. I’m expecting partly to mostly sunny skies. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the 30s with a northeast wind. Tomorrow night will be mostly clear with low temperatures back down into the 20s.

The Next Weather Maker

GFS 12-14-14

The models right now are indicating a system that will bring us some showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. It Looks like accumulations will be light in the mountains with mainly rain along the coast. This will start off with rain for most areas and then changing back over to snow as the system moves out. This may cause some slick travel so be aware when driving Wednesday night.

Storm Early Next Week?

Models right now are indicating a storm coming for early next week. Of course this is over a week out and right now the models aren’t agreeing on what this storm is going to do. Stay tuned to Western Maine Weather as we continue to monitor this storm.

Western Maine Weather 5-Day Outlook

WMW 5 day 12-14-14We’ll Be Back Tomorrow Morning With Another Update On Facebook. -Bobby Koenig

Thank you for your support of Western Maine Weather! All of us strive to bring you comprehensive detailed forecasts that you won’t find anywhere else in the region. Your likes & shares on Facebook, as well as re-tweets on Twitter are much appreciated. You may not like the weather, but our goal is that you’ll like the way it is presented to you… straightforward, timely, and honestly without the hype. 

Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information.

From all of us at Western Maine Weather, we wish you a wonderful & memorable holiday season. 

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe!

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Posted in General, Winter 2014-15

12-13-14 #MEwx Calm Weather Finally Returns As Upper Low Moves Out, Light #Rain and #Snow Returns Wednesday

Calm Weather Returns As Upper Low Moves Out

WMW p24

Hello everyone! Jack Sillin here with your evening update.

Tomorrow looks to be our first day with widespread sun for anywhere in the region since this past Monday with downsloping NW winds giving coastal areas the honors. The mountains stay locked in the clouds for the most part with the chance for an upslope flurry or two. A few breaks of sun are possible for the mountains especially in the afternoon but it will be a mostly cloudy day one again the high terrain. Highs will be cool but not cold with temps topping out in the 30’s for most areas, warmest at the coast.

Monday will continue where Sunday left off in terms of sun and mild temps with highs in the 30’s for most. 40’s are possible at the coast. Surface high pressure will be locked in place leading to calm winds and more widespread sun. Clouds will still stick around in the mountains but everyone should see at least some sun, especially during the afternoon hours.

Tuesday will be a lot like Sunday and Monday but winds will shift more to the NE as high pressure slides towards the Canadian Maritimes ahead of our next storm system. Clouds will slowly increase from the west in the afternoon taking the place of morning sun. Highs will be a tad cooler as the clouds will block some of the sun’s warming effects but will by no means be cold ranging from 26-39.

Wintry Mix Returns Wednesday

WMW p26

12Z GFS Model IDEA Regarding Wednesday’s Storm. Map Valid 7AM Wednesday. NOT A Forecast.

 

Our next, and only chance for widespread precip in the next 5 days arrives Wednesday with a weak frontal system and possible redeveloping offshore low. This system will be moisture starved so expect mostly light precip. Temps as of now look to be too warm for snow or wintry mix at the coast but inland areas could see some snow or sleet mixing in while the mountains stay mostly snow. Only light snow accumulations are expected. Again, this system looks to be lacking significant moisture so precip will be light for everyone. Highs on Wednesday will range from 31-39 with light N winds in the morning turning NW by evening.

Quiet And Cool Weather Returns Thursday

Low pressure moves out Thursday leaving us just a few flurries in the morning quickly giving way to mostly sunny skies outside of the mountains. NW winds will make things feel a tad cooler but overall fair weather is expected for the end of the week. Highs will be a tad cooler with temps ranging from 26-37.

Full Western Maine Weather 5-Day Forecast

WMW p25

Our next update will be tomorrow morning on Facebook. -Jack

Thank you for your support of Western Maine Weather! All of us strive to bring you comprehensive detailed forecasts that you won’t find anywhere else in the region. Your likes & shares on Facebook, as well as re-tweets on Twitter are much appreciated. You may not like the weather, but our goal is that you’ll like the way it is presented to you… straightforward, timely, and honestly without the hype. 

Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information.

From all of us at Western Maine Weather, we wish you a wonderful & memorable holiday season. 

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe! 

 

Tagged with: , , , ,
Posted in General, Winter 2014-15
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