#MEwx 2.26.15 Cold & Quiet Until Late Weekend For Western #Maine

A Break For Two More Days

FRI

 

The end of the week ends on a relatively quiet note for the region. High pressure works into the region which may kick up a few clouds and the breeze on Friday. Outside of a slight chance of a flurry in the mountains, the area stays precipitation free for the day. After another frosty start with the mountains, foothills & protected coastal areas below zero and slightly above elsewhere, temperatures will be hard pressed to reach 10° north and may break 20° along the shorelines for daily highs. Winds will again be noticeable out of the northwest at 10-20 mph, with some higher gusts possible in the mountains. Wind chill values for the day appear to range near -10° up north to near 0° over the rest of the region.

Any clouds clear out Friday night, and the thermometer plummets again, with many areas falling double digits below zero, leaving a bitter start to Saturday. Saturday could be one of the better days of late with abundant sun, less wind, and temperatures creeping up a bit.

Tracking Sunday Into Monday

12z GFS Model IDEA

12z GFS Model IDEA at 1 AM Monday

Guidance has been consistent over the past few days on our upcoming system coming in the form of a long wave trough dropping down from Canada, moving southeastward. Models have been consistent with keeping most of the moisture to the south, which would bring light snow with 1-3″ or less over most of the area. There is a couple things going on with this event that make me a bit concerned. For one, the Arctic high that enters the region Friday into Saturday is a relatively strong one, which concerns me on timing of the event. Models are being fairly progressive in moving it along, which with air this cold, it usually doesn’t move in the time frame they say it will. This idea favors more of a southern push of the precipitation, which if that idea verifies, may lead to flurries and not much else. The second concern was the idea the 12z European model came up with in todays run. On the GFS graphic above, I added two areas of low pressure circled in orange. While these areas of low pressure are relatively weak, anything that may cause the trough to move northward changes the snowfall prediction. All the models are quite stingy with snow for this event, and it very well could be a relative non-event for most. It’s these little nuances that models put out or don’t that make me wonder how this will play out, either way.

Western Maine Weather Five Day OutlookFD022615

Light snow ends for most Monday morning, with exception of the mountains seeing flurries & squalls through the day as northwest winds crank up. It appears to remain breezy into Tuesday as the sun returns. Temperatures climb close to their seasonal normals to start off the week. Our next event of concern appears Wednesday into Thursday, which may bring mixed precipitation and rain. It’s too early to tell for sure. We will update on that over the weekend.

~Mike Haggett

Follow the Western Maine Weather Team on Twitter!

Mike Haggett @WesternMEwx
Bobby Koenig @KoenigWX
Alex Reed @AlexReedWX
Jack Sillin @JackSillin

Would you like an event-specific forecast for your non-profit or charity event? We at Western Maine Weather would love to help! Send us a message on our Facebook page with the date of your event, and for more information.

 Thank you for your support of Western Maine Weather! All of us strive to bring you comprehensive detailed forecasts that you won’t find anywhere else in the region. Your likes & shares on Facebook, as well as re-tweets on Twitter are much appreciated. You may not like the weather, but our goal is that you’ll like the way it is presented to you… straightforward, timely, and honestly without the hype. 

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Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information. 

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe!

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Posted in General, Winter 2014-15

2-25-15 #MEwx More Bitter Cold On The Way For The Rest Of The Week, More Snow Possible Early Next Week

Bitter Cold Makes Yet Another Return Tonight

WMW p135

Another round of cold air will roll in tonight and looks to stick around for quite a while. While this blast of cold air won’t be particularly strong or brutal, it looks to serve as yet another reminder that winter is still here and will be for a while. Tomorrow we see some flurries especially in the mountains as NW winds bring colder air into the region. Downwind of the mountains, clear and cold conditions are likely. While winds won’t be that strong, with low actual temps, wind chills will once again become a problem tomorrow morning.

WMW p136

18Z GFS Showing Bitterly Cold Wind Chills Tomorrow Morning.

Yet Another Snow Threat Sunday

WMW p138Clouds will again be on the increase for the later part of the weekend as another storm system nears. The setup for this one will involve an arctic front dropping south near James Bay which will shift its energy to a new low developing over Maine embedded in a deep moisture stream coming north from the Southeast US. While the details are still uncertain, at least some snow is looking more and more likely. Some mixing issues are possible on the coast so stay tuned for more details as we get closer

Full WMW 5-Day Forecast

WMW p137Cold with a side of snow summarizes the 5 day forecast tonight. Details on our next storm threat will come in later posts.

-Jack Sillin (5-day by Mike Haggett)

Follow the Western Maine Weather Team on Twitter!

Mike Haggett @WesternMEwx
Bobby Koenig @KoenigWX
Alex Reed @AlexReedWX
Jack Sillin @JackSillin

Would you like an event-specific forecast for your non-profit or charity event? We at Western Maine Weather would love to help! Send us a message on our Facebook page with the date of your event, and for more information.

 Thank you for your support of Western Maine Weather! All of us strive to bring you comprehensive detailed forecasts that you won’t find anywhere else in the region. Your likes & shares on Facebook, as well as re-tweets on Twitter are much appreciated. You may not like the weather, but our goal is that you’ll like the way it is presented to you… straightforward, timely, and honestly without the hype. 

Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information. 

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe!

Posted in General, Winter 2014-15

#MEwx 2.24.15 – A Snowy Start To Wednesday for Western #Maine

Latest Advisories From NWSwarnmap

 

FOR THE LATEST  UPDATES FROM NWS GRAY  CLICK HERE

Snow To End By Late Morning

WED

Snow showers appear to break out late Tuesday into early Wednesday as low pressure comes together in the Gulf of Maine and intensifies on its way into the Canadian Maritimes. The storm will be as fast moving as it is in developing, with only eastern areas of the region seeing any accumulations worthy more than just a brush. As the storm departs, skies appear to break by late morning over western sections, and early afternoon in eastern sections. Winds will pick up out of the west in the afternoon with gusts near 30 mph, and that will likely cause blowing & drifting snow to contend with through late evening.

Central / MidCoast Areas To Get The Most

022515snow

For the mountains, this area will be a virtual shutout for this event. Further southeast, accumulations increase from Farmington to Rockland. Coastal Waldo & Knox counties are likely to see the highest totals from this storm as heavier bands begin to develop as the storm gains in strength moving eastward. The heaviest amount of snowfall appears to completely exit the region by late morning as the storm tracks into the Bay of Fundy.

Western Maine Weather 5-Day OutlookFD022415

The region appears to get a break from Wednesday afternoon until Sunday of any real amount of precipitation. A weak wave works through the region Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning which may touch off a flurry in the mountains. Otherwise, it will be breezy enough to add a bite to the air until Saturday. The mornings appear to start off with temperatures either side of 0° through the forecast period. We’re tracking a long wave frontal boundary that will impact the region late Sunday into Monday, which will be the next chance for plowable snow. Models were thinking it may be a decent snow event yesterday, but backed off on that idea today. As always, stay tuned here to Western Maine Weather for the latest as the weekend approaches.

-Mike Haggett

Follow the Western Maine Weather Team on Twitter!

Mike Haggett @WesternMEwx
Bobby Koenig @KoenigWX
Alex Reed @AlexReedWX
Jack Sillin @JackSillin

Would you like an event-specific forecast for your non-profit or charity event? We at Western Maine Weather would love to help! Send us a message on our Facebook page with the date of your event, and for more information.

 Thank you for your support of Western Maine Weather! All of us strive to bring you comprehensive detailed forecasts that you won’t find anywhere else in the region. Your likes & shares on Facebook, as well as re-tweets on Twitter are much appreciated. You may not like the weather, but our goal is that you’ll like the way it is presented to you… straightforward, timely, and honestly without the hype. 

Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information. 

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe!

 

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Posted in General, Winter 2014-15

#MEwx 2.23.15 – A Frigid Tuesday For Western #Maine; #Snow Possible For Some Wednesday

Latest Warnings & Advisories From NWSwarnmap

 

FOR THE LATEST  UPDATES FROM NWS GRAY  CLICK HERE

Freezer Burn Start To Tuesday

tue

While the region wakes up to double-digit below zero cold and wind chill values ranging from -40° to -20°, the upside here is that high pressure responsible for this bitter blast won’t be around long. South / southwesterly winds will be bitter cold, but since the breeze is taping into slightly warmer air, the daytime highs have a fighting chance to reach above zero in the mountains and the mid-teens for the coast. Had high pressure been slightly north and slower to move eastward, it is likely the whole day could have been spent well below zero over much of the region. The late February sun will help take the edge off this nastiness, as the sky will remain mostly clear over the region until clouds arrive Tuesday night.

A Possible Norlun Trough Situation Wednesday

There are many moving pieces to this scenario as several pieces of energy are involved. As is appears for now, areas northeast of Portland up through Augusta and east to Belfast are likely to get accumulating snows. Model guidance isn’t in agreement on this, but all indicate that there is potential for a snowy impact for some parts of the region.

The Set Up Starts Tuesday

12z GFS Model IDEA at 8 AM Tuesday

12z GFS Model IDEA at 8 AM Tuesday

A strong low moves eastward across central Ontario, but as deep as the low is, the Arctic air isn’t giving a whole lot of moisture to it. That will change as it moves into Central Quebec and starts interacting with what is coming up the coast. Timing will be very critical here.

12z GFS Model IDEA for 1 AM Wednesday

12z GFS Model IDEA for 1 AM Wednesday

In the 18 hours since 8 AM Tuesday, the GFS model idea shows the main low splitting in two and two areas of low pressure moving upstream. It’s at this point where the south / southwest winds that started the day Tuesday show what they bring. Outflow snow showers are likely from late Tuesday into early Wednesday. It is at this point where the accumulation game of who gets how much for how long becomes the question.

Wednesday’s Snow Ideas

12z NAM Model IDEA for Wind at near 3400 feet

12z NAM Model IDEA for Wind at near 3400 feet

The models have shown more of Eastern Maine impact in the past couple of days, but that may change pending on how this comes together. The NAM4 model guidance from this morning really did an excellent job shaping up the potential Norlun trough scenario. Based on this idea, snow in any accumulation over an inch will likely be confined east of Portland & Lewiston. Knowing the latest model performance in handling these events, however, it is difficult to know for certain if that idea will maintain itself. Models vary on impact of a dusting to 2″ region wide to 2-6″ possible for Brunswick / Augusta eastward. Folks following from DownEast & Eastern Maine should be prepared to get the shovels out once again for this one.

wedsnow

This snowfall idea is based on a blend of model ideas and forward thinking. Given the moisture advancing up the coast, the time of where the interaction takes place between the low cutting across central Quebec and the weak disturbances over the ocean make this a tough one to call. Models are focused on a Knox & Waldo county for the highest amounts in our forecast area, and the idea is reflected here. As always with these kind of events, there is a certain amount of bust potential both high & low. For now this is our best guesstimate, and will update on this tomorrow.

Snow Clears By Afternoon

12z GFS Model IDEA for 7 PM Wednesday

12z GFS Model IDEA for 7 PM Wednesday

Guidance has all the pieces working into one central low that moves into the Canadian Maritimes and hammers them yet again. Since the storm is forming over the Gulf of Maine and intensifies rapidly into the Bay of Fundy, the issue following the fresh snowfall will once again be wind. Blowing and drifting snow will be an issue Wednesday afternoon into late Thursday. As the storm exits the region, another round of Arctic air sweeps in behind it. At this point it does not appear nearly as bone chilling cold as the region starts out on Tuesday, but below zero / near zero starting temperatures will continue for the rest of the week.

Western Maine Weather Five Day Outlook

FD022315After Wednesday’s event, it appears that below normal temps and wind chill will be the main weather story to round out the workweek. For Saturday, temperatures are slated to rise a bit, and what could be a pleasant outdoor activity day. A peek into Sunday & Monday indicates a frontal boundary approaching the region that may give the area some light snow to wrap up the weekend, and perhaps a bit more to start the first of next week.

-Mike Haggett

Follow the Western Maine Weather Team on Twitter!

Mike Haggett @WesternMEwx
Bobby Koenig @KoenigWX
Alex Reed @AlexReedWX
Jack Sillin @JackSillin

Would you like an event-specific forecast for your non-profit or charity event? We at Western Maine Weather would love to help! Send us a message on our Facebook page with the date of your event, and for more information.

 Thank you for your support of Western Maine Weather! All of us strive to bring you comprehensive detailed forecasts that you won’t find anywhere else in the region. Your likes & shares on Facebook, as well as re-tweets on Twitter are much appreciated. You may not like the weather, but our goal is that you’ll like the way it is presented to you… straightforward, timely, and honestly without the hype. 

Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information. 

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe!

 

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Posted in General, Winter 2014-15

#MEwx 2.22.15 – A Break From #Snow But Frigid Weather Returns To Western #Maine

Latest Warnings & Advisories From NWS

warnmap

FOR THE LATEST  UPDATES FROM NWS GRAY  CLICK HERE

Back To The Arctic On Monday

monday

The afternoon respite from the harshness of winter on Sunday which brought temperatures above 32° in some areas for the first time in weeks is short lived as the region heads back to the icebox to start off the week. Technically the highs of the day will occur just after midnight Monday, then tumble into the single digits below zero in the north and single digits above south by early evening. Northwesterly winds at 15 – 25 mph along with gusts near 40 mph will usher in the next Arctic blast. Along with that, a few flurries & snow squalls are possible predominantly over the higher terrain. Any snow accumulation will likely be an inch or two.

Wind Chill Warnings go into effect for the mountains at 1 PM Monday and 7 PM for the foothills and interior areas. Wind Chill Advisories go into effect for the coastal plain at 10 PM Monday. All are scheduled to expire Tuesday morning once the wind tapers off.

A Brutal Start To Tuesday 11001189_719258098191454_643839296_o

 

The trend with this idea is even colder than from the update posted last evening. Many areas of the region are likely to see wind chill values -30° or worse overnight Monday into Tuesday. All areas appear to start out in the double digits below zero. Once the sun climbs into the sky, temperatures will being to rise above zero for the mountains and the low teens over the shorelines.

Western Maine Weather 5-Day Outlook

FD022215

The light southerly breeze on Tuesday will be a sign for a slightly warmer day Wednesday. A storm passes by across central Quebec that is likely to bring mountain snow showers in the morning, but appears to clear out around midday. After that, it’s back into the deep freeze once again as high temps in the single digits north to near 20° south will round out the week.

-Mike Haggett

Follow the Western Maine Weather Team on Twitter!

Mike Haggett @WesternMEwx
Bobby Koenig @KoenigWX
Alex Reed @AlexReedWX
Jack Sillin @JackSillin

Would you like an event-specific forecast for your non-profit or charity event? We at Western Maine Weather would love to help! Send us a message on our Facebook page with the date of your event, and for more information.

 Thank you for your support of Western Maine Weather! All of us strive to bring you comprehensive detailed forecasts that you won’t find anywhere else in the region. Your likes & shares on Facebook, as well as re-tweets on Twitter are much appreciated. You may not like the weather, but our goal is that you’ll like the way it is presented to you… straightforward, timely, and honestly without the hype. 

Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information. 

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe!

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Posted in General, Winter 2014-15

2-21-15 #MEwx More Snow And Bitter Cold On The Way For Western #Maine

Latest Watches, Warnings, and Advisories From The National Weather Service

2015-02-21_17-45-36

FOR THE LATEST  UPDATES FROM NWS GRAY ► CLICK HERE

Snow Continues Through The Overnight Hours

page

Snow will continue to move into the area at varying intensities this evening. Snow may accumulate at rates up to 1” per hour across the area for a time this evening into the early morning hours on Sunday. As low pressure passes to our north tonight, warmer air will be dragged in from the south. Currently, I don’t expect much mixing to occur at the coast, but towards the end of precipitation, some sleet will be possible. Rain may occur on the outermost peninsulas and islands of the midcoast, but this is looking unlikely.

Snowfall

2015-02-21_17-16-50

Total accumulations will vary greatly depending on location, but a general 1-3” looks likely for northern and western areas, with 3-6” possible for southern and eastern areas. Localized heavy-banding may help to push a few, very localized areas above 6”, mainly in the eastern hills of Waldo county. As the storm moves out Sunday, temperatures will hover around freezing for the morning hours, likely leading to some slick travel. Temperatures will briefly spike above freezing for the first time in quite a while across the areas Sunday afternoon, before dropping like a rock by Monday morning.

Temperatures Drop Monday

2015-02-21_17-42-29

High pressure will build into the area tomorrow which will cause northwest winds bring more cold air into the region. Temperatures Monday will continue to drop throughout the day because of the wind. Temperatures Monday night will drop below zero and will create wind chills 20-30 below zero. Tuesday will be a bitter cold day with high temperatures only making it into single digits and lower teens. We will then turn our eyes Wednesday with another storm may impact the area.

Western Maine Weather 5-Day Outlook

2015-02-21_14-58-16

We are keeping our eyes on Wednesday with some snow showers moving through the area. Thurday will be another cold day as northwest winds usher in more cold air. We will have another update tomorrow on Facebook. Have a good evening.

~Alex Reed & Bobby Koenig

Follow the Western Maine Weather Team on Twitter!

Mike Haggett @WesternMEwx
Bobby Koenig @KoenigWX
Alex Reed @AlexReedWX
Jack Sillin @JackSillin

Would you like an event-specific forecast for your non-profit or charity event? We at Western Maine Weather would love to help! Send us a message on our Facebook page with the date of your event, and for more information.

 Thank you for your support of Western Maine Weather! All of us strive to bring you comprehensive detailed forecasts that you won’t find anywhere else in the region. Your likes & shares on Facebook, as well as re-tweets on Twitter are much appreciated. You may not like the weather, but our goal is that you’ll like the way it is presented to you… straightforward, timely, and honestly without the hype. 

Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information. 

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe!

Tagged with: , , , , ,
Posted in General, Winter 2014-15

2.20.15 #MEwx More #Snow Saturday Night-Sunday, Bitter #Cold Returns Monday for Western #Maine

Latest Watches From The National Weather Service

NWS Watches as of 4:30 PM EST Friday, February 20th 2015

NWS Watches as of 4:30 PM EST Friday, February 20th 2015

FOR THE LATEST  UPDATES FROM NWS GRAY ► CLICK HERE

Bitter Cold Saturday Morning

12Z Feb 20 GFS Model IDEA of Low Temperatures Saturday Morning

12Z Feb 20 GFS Model IDEA of Low Temperatures Saturday Morning

Most areas will see temperatures fall below zero Saturday morning, in fact, most areas will fall into the double digits below zero. Lows of around 10 to 20 degrees below zero will be likely, especially in far western sections. Winds will calm down quite a bit overnight, however, wind chills of 20-30 degrees below zero will be possible across the higher terrain.

More Snow Saturday Evening-Sunday

Saturday February 21st 2015 Credit: AccuWeather

Saturday February 21st 2015 Credit: AccuWeather

Saturday morning will feature increasing clouds. Low pressure will move into northwestern Pennsylvania early on in the afternoon. This will cause light snow/snow showers to break out across Western Maine. Although snow may start Saturday afternoon, it should be light until the early-evening hours. Snowfall rates will increase across southern and eastern areas Saturday evening into the early morning hours of Sunday. Across northern and western areas, a more light snow will fall, but roads will still be slick in all areas, so if travelling Saturday night, take it slow. Snow will come to an end early Sunday, possibly ending as sleet for coastal areas. Along the immediate peninsulas and islands of the midcoast, a brief change to rain can’t be ruled out, due to warm marine air moving in. Temperatures will warm above freezing for most areas on Sunday, which might allow a little bit of the deep snow pack to melt. However, temperatures will drop like a rock Sunday night, so expect any standing water to freeze on untreated surfaces.

Snow Accumulation Thoughts

Snowfall Forecast Feb 21-22 2015 Graphic Credit: Bobby Koenig

Snowfall Forecast Feb 21-22 2015 Graphic Credit: Bobby Koenig

As far as snowfall accumulations go, a general 3-6″ will be possible across southern and eastern portions of the area, with 1-3″ across northern portions of the area. Some models today (Friday Feb 20) have been suggesting the potential for up to 8″ of snow across the interior midcoast. While this is something I think we need to monitor, for now, it appears that accumulations will end up just around 6″ there, and probably won’t make it above. However, this forecast could change, so stay tuned to Western Maine Weather Saturday for the newest details on this storm system.

More Cold Monday

More Cold Monday. Credit: AccuWeather

More Cold Monday. Credit: AccuWeather

As low pressure departs the region to the north on Sunday, it will drag a cold front through in it’s wake. While the actually cold air will lag quite a bit behind this front, expect temperatures to plummet Sunday night into Monday morning. Lows right around zero will be common. Temperatures won’t rise much on Monday, with teens across the south and single digits across the north. Monday night appears to be pretty cold, with lows below zero likely across the area.

Western Maine Weather 5-Day Outlook

5-Day Outlook Feb 21-25 2015

5-Day Outlook Feb 21-25 2015

-Alex Reed and Bobby Koenig (Snowfall Map)

Follow the Western Maine Weather Team on Twitter!

Mike Haggett @WesternMEwx
Bobby Koenig @KoenigWX
Alex Reed @AlexReedWX
Jack Sillin @JackSillin

 Thank you for your support of Western Maine Weather! All of us strive to bring you comprehensive detailed forecasts that you won’t find anywhere else in the region. Your likes & shares on Facebook, as well as re-tweets on Twitter are much appreciated. You may not like the weather, but our goal is that you’ll like the way it is presented to you… straightforward, timely, and honestly without the hype. 

Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information. 

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe!

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