1-31-15 #MEwx Another Storm For Western #Maine Around The Corner

Latest Watches, Warnings, And Advisories From The National Weather Service

1-31-15WMW WWA

FOR THE LATEST  UPDATES FROM NWS GRAY ► CLICK HERE

The Quiet Before The Storm Tomorrow For The Super Bowl

1-31-15WMW Tomorrow

Tomorrow Will be the quiet before the storm as the low pressure system that will effect our weather on Monday will continue to move to the east. High pressure will continue to hold on to give us one more nice day for the super bowl. Expect temperatures tomorrow to be in the negative single digits in the mountains to the lower teens along the coast. Wind chills will be a factor in the temperature tomorrow but won’t be as bad as they were today. We will see increasing clouds throughout the day as the low pressure approaches and moves off the coast early tomorrow morning.

Monday’s Snowfall

1-31-15WMW Monday Snowfall

So here we go again in the snow department. With deep cold air in place, this next storm will most likely be all snow with the mix line remaining safely to our south. The cold air will do a few things to the snow which will be important in trying to determine how much snow will fall. First off, on the ‘more snow’ side of things, cold dry air means super high snow ratios. With temps during the storm in the single digits on either side of zero, watch for snow ratios to be in the 20:1 to 25:1 range which should most likely more than make up for the lack of total water that falls from the sky during the storm. On the ‘less snow’ side, the cold air comes with dry air too which means that some of the snow will be eaten up before it can reach the ground. While this does not looks like a major threat for southern areas, northern areas will most likely see a very sharp cutoff between a decent storm and barely a flake. 

Looking at accumulations, the coast should again be the jackpot with 8-14” likely. Higher amounts are likely in this area however we have yet to pin down where those areas will be. Stay tuned for later forecasts as those details become more clear. Snowfall tapers off as you head north with the northern mountains seeing just 3-6”. Consult our snow map above for your area specific forecast. As far as timing goes, snow looks to start before dawn Monday becoming heavy at times during the day Monday before tapering off Monday night.

Wind Concerns

1-31-15WMW Wind Concerns

GFS WINDS 7 PM Monday

This model graphic (Courtesy of AccuWeather) shows the projected Low Level Jet across the area Monday afternoon and evening. The Low Level Jet is essentially winds around a mile or so above the ground. As this graphic shows, winds above ground may approach 50 miles per hour at times Monday afternoon and evening. Cold air will help these winds mix down to the surface on Monday, with wind gusts approaching 45 miles per hour possible along the coast. This may lead to whiteout conditions, depending on the exact storm track. This is one of the many elements of the system that will need to be narrowed down over the next day or so, so stay tuned!

Coastal Concerns

1-31-15WMW Coastal Concerns

Wave Heights 1 AM Tuesday

As with any coastal storm that features a prolonged period of onshore winds, coastal flooding will be a concern. Despite astronomically high tides, the peak storm surge of 1-2 feet should arrive during the low tide cycle and thus this will most likely not be a major coastal flooding event. That being said, during high tide cycles (11 AM Monday and 11:35 PM Monday) affected by the storm, some splash over and minor erosion are likely. Again, this does not look to be a major coastal flooding event but some minor impacts are likely.

Western Maine Weather 5-Day Outlook

1-31-15WMW 5 Day

We are keeping our eyes on another possible storm on Thursday that could bring us more snow. We will keep you posted as we get closer to then.

We will have another update on Facebook tomorrow morning. Have a great evening.

~Bobby Koenig, Jack Sillin, Alex Reed, & Mike Haggett

Would you like an event-specific forecast for your non-profit or charity event? We at Western Maine Weather would love to help! Send us a message on our Facebook page with the date of your event, and for more information.

 Thank you for your support of Western Maine Weather! All of us strive to bring you comprehensive detailed forecasts that you won’t find anywhere else in the region. Your likes & shares on Facebook, as well as re-tweets on Twitter are much appreciated. You may not like the weather, but our goal is that you’ll like the way it is presented to you… straightforward, timely, and honestly without the hype. 

Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information. 

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe!

Tagged with: , , , ,
Posted in General, Winter 2014-15

1-30-15 #MEwx One Storm Moving Out, Another Threat Already On Deck

Snow Moves Out Tonight

WMW p99

Today’s storm will be slow to move out tonight but eventually snow will taper off to showers and flurries tonight before ending for good early tomorrow morning. The midcoast will hang on to snow the longest but even there, flakes will be all said and done by 7 AM. Winter storm warnings are still in effect until 6AM tomorrow morning so continue to use extra caution if you’re out and about this evening.

Round One Of Bitter Cold Arrives Tomorrow

WMW p98

Our first shot of very cold air arrives behind tonight’s system as NW winds behind the intensifying low brings in fresh Canadian air. Highs will arrive in the morning as cold air advection really gets underway and beyond about 7 tomorrow morning, temps will be falling like a rock. Lows bottom out tomorrow nigh, dropping below 0 for most with only the very, very immediate coast squeaking out an above 0 night. Winds gusting over 20 mph at times will make it feel much colder than that with subzero wind chills region wide. Wind chills will likely drop under the 30 below mark and Wind Chill Advisories are up for the mountains.

Cold air is firmly entrenched Sunday with highs ranging from 4 below to 15 above. Winds will relax as the storm moves well into the Canadian Maritimes and we are left with a mostly sunny day. By the afternoon however, clouds will be spilling in from the west in advance of our next chance for snow which arrives Monday.

Very Close Call Monday

WMW p100Our next chance for steady snow arrives Monday as low pressure passes to our south. This will be a very close call as a track 50 or 100 miles north from the current forecast would bring us another sizeable storm but a track 50 or 100 miles to the south would leave us high and dry. Most likely, the coast will see at least some snow. Just how much and how far inland the accumulations make it are two very important details that remain unknown at this point. Given the uncertain nature of the forecast, I urge you to stay tuned to the latest info from both us here at Western Maine Weather as well as the National Weather Service. Regardless of the exact track, another shot of cold air is likely as the storm’s windfield taps into an even colder Canadian airmass to our north. 

Full WMW 5-Day Forecast

WMW p97

-Jack Sillin

Would you like an event-specific forecast for your non-profit or charity event? We at Western Maine Weather would love to help! Send us a message on our Facebook page with the date of your event, and for more information.

 Thank you for your support of Western Maine Weather! All of us strive to bring you comprehensive detailed forecasts that you won’t find anywhere else in the region. Your likes & shares on Facebook, as well as re-tweets on Twitter are much appreciated. You may not like the weather, but our goal is that you’ll like the way it is presented to you… straightforward, timely, and honestly without the hype. 

Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information. 

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe!

Posted in General

#MEwx 1.28.15 – #BlizzardOf2015 Wrap Up; More #Snow On The Way For Western #Maine

Latest Watches From NWS

watch

FOR THE LATEST  UPDATES FROM NWS GRAY ► CLICK HERE

“Blizzard Of 2015″ Lives Up To Billing

snowtotal

Snowfall Map from NWS Caribou

The January Blizzard of 2015 will go down as the 4th highest snowfall on record for Portland Maine with 23.8″ of snow. The storm met blizzard criteria in Portland, along with Sanford, Augusta, Lewiston & Auburn. The storm also broke a daily record in Portland for January 27th, where the previous record for the day was 8.3″ set in 1963. Southern New England got walloped in this event, with over 30 locations reporting 30″+ snowfall. A state of emergency was issued in all New England states with the exception of Vermont. Coastal flooding caused millions in damage in Eastern Massachusetts.

The totals reported to NWS Gray for Western Maine are below:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
215 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 48
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION
IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN
SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/GRAY

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                   
                     SNOWFALL           OF 
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

MAINE

...ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY...
   5 NNW GREENE          30.0   700 AM  1/28                          
   1 WSW TURNER          28.5   743 AM  1/28                          
   2 E LEWISTON          28.5  1001 AM  1/28                          
   1 SW NORTH TURNER     25.6   700 AM  1/28                          
   LEWISTON              25.0   722 AM  1/28                          
   1 ENE LISBON FALLS    24.0   931 AM  1/28                          
   2 W AUBURN            24.0   934 AM  1/28                          
   DURHAM                23.0  1042 PM  1/27                          
   4 S TURNER            22.0   622 PM  1/27                          
   TURNER                13.5   700 AM  1/28                          

...CUMBERLAND COUNTY...
   STANDISH              30.0   940 AM  1/28                          
   5 NNW GORHAM          30.0   700 AM  1/28                          
   YARMOUTH              29.0  1123 AM  1/28                          
   1 E PORTLAND          27.4   808 PM  1/27                          
   1 ENE SOUTH WINDHAM   27.0   723 AM  1/28                          
   SCARBOROUGH           27.0   949 AM  1/28                          
   GRAY NWS OFFICE       26.6   706 AM  1/28                          
   GORHAM                26.3   715 AM  1/28                          
   1 SSE GORHAM          26.1   800 AM  1/28                          
   5 NW YARMOUTH         26.0   721 AM  1/28                          
   NORTH YARMOUTH        26.0   945 AM  1/28                          
   CUMBERLAND FORESIDE   26.0   949 AM  1/28                          
   PORTLAND - N DEERING  25.5   700 AM  1/28                          
   2 NE GORHAM           25.3   655 AM  1/28                          
   2 SSW CUMBERLAND      25.0   258 AM  1/28                          
   4 WSW NEW GLOUCESTER  25.0   815 AM  1/28                          
   4 NNE RAYMOND         24.0   856 AM  1/28                          
   1 SSW SOUTH PORTLAND  24.0   516 AM  1/28                          
   PORTLAND JETPORT      23.8   909 AM  1/28                          
   3 NE NAPLES           23.5   700 AM  1/28                          
   WINDHAM               23.0   515 PM  1/27                          
   2 NW FALMOUTH         22.2   623 AM  1/28                          
   1 WSW GORHAM          22.0   700 AM  1/28                          
   1 ENE SCARBOROUGH     21.0   642 PM  1/27                          
   2 SW CASCO            21.0   804 PM  1/27                          
   BRIDGTON              20.9   637 AM  1/28                          
   3 N WESTBROOK         20.0   700 AM  1/28                          
   CUMBERLAND CENTER     20.0   600 AM  1/28                          
   3 ENE WESTBROOK       20.0   754 PM  1/27                          
   3 SE NEW GLOUCESTER   18.6   700 AM  1/28                          
   6 WNW PORTLAND        18.0   700 AM  1/28                          
   2 SSW FREEPORT        17.0   915 AM  1/28                          
   2 ESE SEBAGO          16.0   800 AM  1/28                          
   1 SSE NORTH SEBAGO    16.0   955 PM  1/27                          
   4 S POWNAL            15.5   700 AM  1/28                          
   3 NW BRIDGTON         12.8   700 AM  1/28                          

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
   FARMINGTON            22.0   700 AM  1/28                          
   NEW SHARON            14.0   445 PM  1/27                          
   EUSTIS                 6.9   655 AM  1/28                          

...KENNEBEC COUNTY...
   1 SSE WINSLOW         16.5   700 AM  1/28                          
   WINSLOW               14.0   505 PM  1/27                          
   VASSALBORO            10.0   705 PM  1/27                          

...KNOX COUNTY...
   CUSHING               16.0   704 PM  1/27                          
   2 SW CUSHING          15.5   522 PM  1/27                          
   SW ROCKPORT           14.0   830 AM  1/28                          
   1 SSW CAMDEN          12.0   533 PM  1/27                          
   3 W UNION             12.0   720 AM  1/28                          
   3 NW UNION            11.0   715 AM  1/28                          

...LINCOLN COUNTY...
   2 SSW WESTPORT ISLAN  20.0   800 AM  1/28                          
   BOOTHBAY              14.0   654 AM  1/28                          
   2 SW NEWCASTLE        12.0   700 AM  1/28                          

...OXFORD COUNTY...
   OXFORD                28.0  1048 AM  1/28                          
   HARTFORD              18.8  1154 AM  1/28                          
   BETHEL                18.0   736 AM  1/28                          
   1 N HARTFORD          17.5   700 AM  1/28                          
   PERU                  17.5   942 AM  1/28                          
   BRYANT POND           14.0  1049 AM  1/28                          
   2 WNW BETHEL          12.3   700 AM  1/28                          
   6 SSE BETHEL          10.0   718 AM  1/28                          
   ANDOVER                9.0   700 AM  1/28                          

...SAGADAHOC COUNTY...
   BATH                  24.9   943 AM  1/28                          
   POPHAM BEACH STATE P  23.0   946 AM  1/28                          
   1 WSW BATH            22.0   600 AM  1/28                          
   TOPSHAM               20.3   421 PM  1/27                          
   1 N TOPSHAM           13.7   700 AM  1/28                          

...SOMERSET COUNTY...
   4 ESE SOLON           20.0   700 AM  1/28                          
   1 NNW PITTSFIELD      19.5   700 AM  1/28                          
   MADISON               18.0   452 PM  1/27                          
   3 SSE HARMONY         17.0  1000 AM  1/28                          
   CORNVILLE             16.0   701 PM  1/27                          
   NORTH ANSON           15.0   718 AM  1/28                          
   1 SSE MADISON         14.7   800 AM  1/28                          
   4 NW PALMYRA          14.5   700 AM  1/28                          
   JACKMAN                8.5   722 AM  1/28                          

...WALDO COUNTY...
   3 SSE BELMONT         14.0   700 AM  1/28                          
   3 N WINTERPORT        10.2   700 AM  1/28                          

...YORK COUNTY...
   SANFORD               31.5   945 AM  1/28                          
   1 NE NORTH WATERBORO  31.5   800 AM  1/28                          
   2 S SANFORD           31.5   718 AM  1/28                          
   1 WSW KITTERY POINT   30.9   700 AM  1/28                          
   2 NNW SACO            27.0   849 AM  1/28                          
   1 S SANFORD           26.0   530 PM  1/27                          
   3 W BIDDEFORD         25.5   844 AM  1/28                          
   KENNEBUNK             24.3   939 AM  1/28                          
   WELLS                 24.0   418 PM  1/27                          
   BERWICK               24.0   442 PM  1/27                          
   2 NE KENNEBUNK        23.7   358 AM  1/28                          
   2 NE WELLS            23.0   700 AM  1/28                          
   YORK                  23.0   350 PM  1/27                          
   SACO                  22.0   300 PM  1/27                          
   2 NNW PORTSMOUTH      22.0   900 PM  1/27                          
   4 SW WELLS            20.5   700 AM  1/28                          
   LIMINGTON             20.0   730 PM  1/27                          
   HOLLIS                20.0   330 PM  1/27                          
   CAPE NEDDICK          19.5   815 AM  1/28                          
   5 N YORK              19.5   815 AM  1/28                          
   3 NNW WELLS           19.0   318 PM  1/27                          
   5 NW HOLLIS CENTER    18.9   700 AM  1/28                          
   1 N KITTERY POINT     17.0   648 PM  1/27                          
   2 NNE BIDDEFORD       12.5   700 AM  1/28

 A Day To Recharge Before The Next Round

thu

 

The region gets to put the shovels away for a day as high pressure keeps the region cold and dry. Sun appears to be abundant to start off the day before clouds increase in the evening. The morning starts off below zero for many. A light wind adds to the chill, with “feels like” temperatures averaging between -20° and -10° region wide. Temps will gradually climb to the 20s region wide.

Another Round of Snow For Friday Into Saturday

stormFri

Snow arrives in the wee hours of Friday, which is likely to cause a slick commute by the typical morning drive time. The snow appears to gain in intensity as the storm moves into the Gulf of Maine in the afternoon and into Friday night. Snow tapers to snow showers as the next Arctic blast arrives behind the system Saturday.

First Call On Snow Amounts

frisnowmap

 

The first call here is a blend of ideas. I suspect this storm may produce a bit of a coastal front at the onset which may keep coastal communities around a half a foot. Unlike the blizzard, this will be a heavier snow due to warmer temperatures. The heaviest and wettest of the snow will be found along the coast which will keep totals down a little bit. Some rain may mix in across the midcoast which will keep totals on the low end of things. Inland a little bit, some mesoscale banding may enhance totals a bit. This is the same type of feature that caused major forecast problems for the blizzard so I urge you to stay updated with the latest forecasts. Snow moves out Friday night leaving us with quieter weather for Saturday

Yet Another Shot Of Cold Air Moves In Saturday

WMW p96

Saturday will feature a return to sunny skies along with gusty NW winds that will bring in much colder air. Wind chills will quickly drop below 0 and become dangerous at times by the afternoon. Actual temps will be falling too starting out in the mid to upper 20’s and even low 30’s in the morning before dropping below 0 by nightfall. Despite the heavy, wet nature of the snow, some blowing/drifting is certainly possible though impacts will be nowhere near as great as those brought by yesterday’s storm.

Another Storm Threat Sunday Into Monday

Yes, there is the potential for another snow storm early next week. Details are still uncertain and today’s computer guidance has trended offshore, yet uncertainties remain and there is certainly room for this to come west and bring more significant impacts. All in all, this is an active pattern and this is the next threat for a more significant storm.

Western Maine Weather Five Day Outlook

FD012815

 

 

-Mike Haggett & Jack Sillin

Would you like an event-specific forecast for your non-profit or charity event? We at Western Maine Weather would love to help! Send us a message on our Facebook page with the date of your event, and for more information.

 Thank you for your support of Western Maine Weather! All of us strive to bring you comprehensive detailed forecasts that you won’t find anywhere else in the region. Your likes & shares on Facebook, as well as re-tweets on Twitter are much appreciated. You may not like the weather, but our goal is that you’ll like the way it is presented to you… straightforward, timely, and honestly without the hype. 

Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information. 

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe!

 

Posted in Blizzard, General, Winter 2014-15

1-27-15 #MEwx Brief Return To Quiet Weather Tomorrow, Snow Returns Friday

Brief Break Tomorrow

WMW p87

Tomorrow will be one of many transition days in the 5-day forecast as our blizzard from today departs and high pressure briefly takes over. Snow should end early tomorrow morning between 4 and 6 AM but another shot of fresh cold will be transported in on NW winds which will keep today’s fluffy snow airborne. Continued blowing and drifting is likely through the afternoon hours tomorrow. Highs will be chilly but not frigid ranging from 9 to 21 above. Mostly cloudy skies are expected though sun should make at least a partial return by evening.

Thursday will feature morning sun giving way to afternoon clouds as another storm approaches from the west. This will not be a big storm and will likely be barely noticeable compared to today’s blizzard. However, snow will still fall and accumulate causing roads to again become slick. Temps will be milder, in the low 20’s for most along with lighter winds.

Snow Returns For Thursday Night/Friday

WMW p89

 

Our next snow event comes in Thursday night and lasts through Friday. There are still some details to be worked out including snow type (wet or dry) and exact timing. One thing that can be said with very high confidence is that this will not be a big storm. Amounts in the 2-4 or 3-6″ range are likely and after today’s storm, it will feel like nothing. That being said, roads could be slick for a time and thus things could get a little slow at some point on Friday. When exactly the steadiest snow arrives has yet to be determined but should be figured out in the next day or two.

Back To Frigid Weather For Saturday

WMW p90

Yet another fresh shot of cold air will move in after Friday’s light snow event and brisk NW winds will drive wind chill values well below 0. While wind chills will not be as extreme as those we saw a few weeks ago, take care to minimize exposed skin if you’re out and about Saturday night. Highs will range from 7 below to 10 above with lows dropping down to 17 below in the mountains by Sunday morning.

Full WMW 5-Day Forecast

WMW p88

Our next chance for a larger storm arrives Sunday into Monday though details are still quite uncertain. All in all, an active weather pattern is setting up for the forseeable future.

-Jack

Would you like an event-specific forecast for your non-profit or charity event? We at Western Maine Weather would love to help! Send us a message on our Facebook page with the date of your event, and for more information.

 Thank you for your support of Western Maine Weather! All of us strive to bring you comprehensive detailed forecasts that you won’t find anywhere else in the region. Your likes & shares on Facebook, as well as re-tweets on Twitter are much appreciated. You may not like the weather, but our goal is that you’ll like the way it is presented to you… straightforward, timely, and honestly without the hype. 

Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information. 

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe!

Posted in General, Winter 2014-15

1-26-15 #MEwx #Blizzard Conditions On The Way For Western #Maine

Latest Warnings From The National Weather Service

1-26-15WMW Warnings

FOR THE LATEST  UPDATES FROM NWS GRAY  CLICK HERE

Forecast Track

tue

The low pressure pressure system that will be producing this “blizzard” will be off the coast tomorrow and slowly track northeastward into Nova Scotia by early Wednesday. Guidance is still picking up a wobble or stall around Cape Cod during the morning hours, which will be the height of the event over the region.

Driving tomorrow will be dangerous. The City of Portland put out an announcement today talking about how the first responders may not be able to reach those in need, as well as plow drivers might be told that they need to pull of the roads because the conditions.  If you absolutely have to drive tomorrow, be sure to have food, water, and prepare for a very long, slow, and arduous drive.

Intensity

nam_rapid-vvelprs-700-nepoolnerc-18-C-000

18z NAM 700mb Vertical Velocity at 7 AM Tuesday

The worst of the storm over the region appears to be from around 4 AM until noon on Tuesday as the storm moves near Cape Cod. Heavy mesoscale bands may dump snow at rates of 1-3″ per hour. After noon, the intense snow ends, giving way to scattered snow showers. With the wind continuing with gusts from 30 – 50 mph pending on location, blizzard-like conditions will persist through the afternoon. As the storm weakens as it moves toward Nova Scotia by Wednesday morning, winds will begin to settle down by Tuesday evening, allowing plow crews to get caught up on roadways.

Duration

18z NAM Simulated Radar at 7 AM Wednesday

18z NAM Simulated Radar at 7 AM Wednesday

By Wednesday morning, scattered snow showers and flurries appear to end from west to east soon after daylight. Any new snow appears to end region wide by 9-10 AM. Behind the storm will come another blast of Arctic air, which will keep the fresh fallen snow airborne through the day. Sun will begin to poke through by mid-morning west and by noon over the Capital District & MidCoast regions.

Coastal Concerns

12z Wave Watch III Wave & Swell Guidance at 1 PM Tuesday

As mentioned last evening, running relatively normal in the tide cycle. Minor coastal flooding is likely with the 4:20 AM tide.  The National Weather Service does anticipate a storm surge along the coast of up to 2′ during high tide (High Tides In Portland: 4:20 AM [10′] and 4:53 PM [9.1′]). With the afternoon high tide, seas will build to 19-23 feet, which sets up beach erosion and battering waves for the early evening high tide. Shoreline interests should stay up to date with the latest bulletins.

For the latest marine forecast from the National Weather Service please CLICK HERE.

Snowfall Totals

10686726_10152979862666276_3662803606338558952_n

Not much has changed from our snow fall totals. we are still thinking the same amounts that we were predicting last night. Given the strong winds of this event, getting accurate readings on snow totals will be a daunting task, especially for the shoreline & coastal interior regions, where blizzard or near blizzard conditions will blow the snow around for hours.

Western Maine Weather 5-Day Forecast

10407814_10152979861731276_7923589250233227882_n

The rest of the five day forecast indicates another round of snow likely for Friday as another coastal system approaches the region. This does not appear to be as intense of a system as the Tuesday event, but could bring plowable amounts of snow for the foothills & coastal areas. We will update on that tomorrow.

We will have continuous coverage of this event on the Western Maine Weather Facebook Page with breaking news on our Twitter accounts (Mike:@WesternMEwx, Alex:@AlexReedWX, Jack:@JackSillin, And Myself:@KoenigWX). Stay Safe Tomorrow.

~Bobby Koenig & Mike Haggett

Would you like an event-specific forecast for your non-profit or charity event? We at Western Maine Weather would love to help! Send us a message on our Facebook page with the date of your event, and for more information.

 Thank you for your support of Western Maine Weather! All of us strive to bring you comprehensive detailed forecasts that you won’t find anywhere else in the region. Your likes & shares on Facebook, as well as re-tweets on Twitter are much appreciated. You may not like the weather, but our goal is that you’ll like the way it is presented to you… straightforward, timely, and honestly without the hype. 

Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information. 

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe!

Tagged with: , , , , , ,
Posted in Blizzard, General, NorEaster, Winter 2014-15

#MEwx 1.25.15 – #Blizzard Warnings Posted For Southwestern #Maine

Latest Warnings From The National Weather Service

WARNMAP

FOR THE LATEST  UPDATES FROM NWS GRAY ► CLICK HERE

Monday’s Calm Before The Major Storm

Monday

For Monday, skies start off mostly sunny and bitter cold. The mountains and foothills are likely to start the day below zero, with the coastal plain just hanging above zero. Temperatures will gain little ground during the day, with the north country likely to top out near 10° and the coast near 20°. Winds will be light and variable to start off, then shift to the northeast at 5-15 mph in the afternoon. By afternoon, high cirrus clouds will filter the sun as the storm approaches from the southwest. Skies are likely to be mostly cloudy by early evening, sheltering the half moon.

Potential Blizzard On The Way

blizzard

Criteria for a “blizzard” varies with each National Weather Service field office a bit, but this graphic here from our friends at AccuWeather covers the bases well for us in the Northeast. As mentioned in the noon Facebook update, the morning guidance proposed by the NAM & GFS models were giving strong hints to this idea, and that was backed up this afternoon with the European model data release.

Storm Arrival

timeline

By 7 AM Tuesday, the storm will be near Cape Cod and intensifying. While this storm is slightly north of the benchmark 40° N Lattitude / 70° W Longitude point, the air will remain plenty cold enough at all levels of the atmosphere to be a snow event for the grand portion of New England. Just the islands of Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket, along with the Cape Cod panhandle will escape snow, but will get hammered with wind near hurricane force.

Why This Is A Potential Blizzard…

12z GFS 700 mb Vertical Velocity Via AccuWeather

12z GFS 700 mb Vertical Velocity Via AccuWeather

The first part of the criteria of a blizzard is intense snowfall. This graphic at 7 AM Tuesday from this morning’s run of the GFS model shows just that. The heavy pinks indicate potential of snowfall rates in the range of 1-3″ of snow per hour. Snow at this velocity is likely to continue through most of the day. Visibility on roadways will likely end up in yards based on this idea. Then add the wind…

gfs---nepoolnerc-54-C-10mgustarrows

12z GFS 10m Wind Gusts at 1 PM Tuesday via AccuWeather

… which is the second part of the criteria of a blizzard. The 12z GFS Model idea of wind gusts at near 400 feet indicate most of the blizzard warned area seeing gusts well above 35 mph. With intense snowfall associated with this event, that helps drive the wind downward to the surface, where gusts to 50-50 mph are more than likely. In this situation, roads will be impassable as clearing crews will have an impossible time keeping up with this event. Tuesday is going to be a day to stay home, and stay off the roads.

Coastal Concerns

wave---grand_banks-54-C-sigwavehgt

12z Wave Watch III Model Guidance of Waves and Wind Direction

The good news is that tides are running normal as the moon is half way to full, so that will help keep the flood threat down somewhat. The National Weather Service anticipates a storm surge of up to 2 feet with this event, which the main concern will be the 4:20 AM high tide since it is projected to come in at 10′. With a two foot storm surge, this puts Commercial Street in Portland under a minor flooding threat, along with any other water level sensitive areas. The afternoon tide at just before 5 PM will likely be the main erosion concern as the waves will be at their peak levels. For the latest marine forecast from the National Weather Service please CLICK HERE.

Snowfall Amounts

blizzardsnow

I am concerned that a dry tongue in the atmosphere will work into the region from this event, which is why my accumulation map may be more conservative than some being shown. I don’t believe this will be an epic event as the Blizzard of 2013 was, but pending on banding, some areas along the southwest coast may eclipse to 24″ mark. The snow does not be as intense Tuesday evening, but will remain steady into Wednesday morning. Steadier snow appears to taper to snow squalls and flurries over the region by early afternoon, and appears to completely end by Wednesday evening.

Western Maine Weather 5-Day Forecast

FD012515

The rest of the week shows a frigid start to Thursday, but temperatures appear to rebound to seasonable levels under bluebird skies. Clouds arrive early Friday, and another ocean storm may be in offing for Friday afternoon into Saturday. At this point it does not appear to be as strong as this event, but will likely be a plowable one.

Stay tuned to our Twitter and Facebook pages for ongoing updates on this event.

-Mike Haggett

Would you like an event-specific forecast for your non-profit or charity event? We at Western Maine Weather would love to help! Send us a message on our Facebook page with the date of your event, and for more information.

 Thank you for your support of Western Maine Weather! All of us strive to bring you comprehensive detailed forecasts that you won’t find anywhere else in the region. Your likes & shares on Facebook, as well as re-tweets on Twitter are much appreciated. You may not like the weather, but our goal is that you’ll like the way it is presented to you… straightforward, timely, and honestly without the hype. 

Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information. 

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe!

Tagged with: , , , , ,
Posted in General, NorEaster, Winter 2014-15

1-24-15 #MEwx Messy Travel This Evening With Another Storm Around The Corner For Western #Maine

Watches, Warnings, and Advisories From The National Weather Service

2015-01-24_17-49-11

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT

FOR THE LATEST  UPDATES FROM NWS GRAY ► CLICK HERE

A Nice Clean Up Day Tomorrow

1-24-15WMW Tomorrow

The low pressure system that has effected our weather today will move off to the northeast tonight which will help to clear the skies tomorrow. This low pressure system will also drag a cold front through the area which will cause some isolated snow showers to spawn in the mountains when that cold front passes. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the 20s, but with the passage of the cold front they will be dropping throughout the day from northwest to southeast. Winds tomorrow will be from the northwest at 10-15 MPH with wind gust up to 40 MPH in some of the higher elevations.

Next Winter Storm Not Far Away

1-24-15WMW Blizzard Conditions

Models have had an incredible shift in thinking over the past 12 to 24 hours in regards to low pressure off of the New England coast. Most models now track the system off of the mid-atlantic coast late Sunday, and then back up the coast Monday and Tuesday, while rapidly strengthening the system. This will likely bring significant impact to our area. Early indications are that a period of strong winds and heavy snow will impact the area Monday night and Tuesday. The potential does exist for blizzard conditions across coastal areas (as seen in the graphic above) and snow accumulations, potentially over 10 inches. This event needs to be watched very closely over the next couple of days, so stay tuned to Western Maine Weather as we continue to iron out the details on this system. -Alex Reed

Western Maine Weather 5-Day Outlook

2015-01-24_19-14-07

We Will Have Another Update Tomorrow On Facebook. Clean Up Time Tomorrow!

~Bobby Koenig

Would you like an event-specific forecast for your non-profit or charity event? We at Western Maine Weather would love to help! Send us a message on our Facebook page with the date of your event, and for more information.

 Thank you for your support of Western Maine Weather! All of us strive to bring you comprehensive detailed forecasts that you won’t find anywhere else in the region. Your likes & shares on Facebook, as well as re-tweets on Twitter are much appreciated. You may not like the weather, but our goal is that you’ll like the way it is presented to you… straightforward, timely, and honestly without the hype. 

Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information. 

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe!

Tagged with: , , , ,
Posted in General, Winter 2014-15
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