11-22-14 #MEwx Saturday Evening Update – Period of Mixed Precipitation Tonight; Warmer and Rainy Early Week; #Thanksgiving #Snowstorm?

Latest Watches, Warnings and Advisories from the National Weather Service

National Weather Service Headlines as of 5:20 PM EST Nov 22

National Weather Service Headlines as of 4:55 PM EST Nov 22

**For the latest information from the National Weather Service, please CLICK HERE

Good evening, everyone! Alex Reed here with your Western Maine Weather evening update. Tonight I expect patchy freezing rain/sleet/snow to move primarily into the mountains, with scattered mixed showers elsewhere. Due to this, the National Weather Service has issued a Freezing Rain Advisory, which is in effect for the mountains of Western Maine, through 7 AM Sunday morning. The radar image below shows patchy mixed precipitation moving in from the west. Lows tonight will range from 25 to 38 degrees

Radar Image as of 5:15 PM EST November 22 Courtesy of: AccuWeather.com

Radar Image as of 5:15 PM EST November 22 Courtesy of: AccuWeather.com

Warmer Weather Returns Early-Week Along with Some Rain

Warmer weather is poised to make a return Sunday-Tuesday. Expect clouds to clear out early Sunday, but increase again later ahead of our next rain maker Monday. Highs Sunday will range from between 39 and 47 degrees.

Warmer Air Moves In Sunday. Map Courtesy of: AccuWeather.com

Warmer Air Moves In Sunday. Map Courtesy of: AccuWeather.com

Monday low pressure will pass to our west, initially dragging a warm front through during the pre-dawn hours. Scattered showers are possible with the front. Precipitation is then set to move in from south to north during the course of Monday morning. Due to the timing and position of low pressure, this should be primarily a rain event. Rainfall totals will be a general 1-2″. Winds will also increase during the day on Monday, with gusts to 40 MPH possible in the mid-morning – early afternoon hours. Highs on Monday will be much warmer (although it won’t feel it, with the rain and wind), ranging between 42 and 51 degrees. Precipitation will begin to move out Monday evening, tapering to showers by midnight Tuesday. 

Cooler Weather Returns Tuesday and Wednesday

Tuesday will start out warm, with temperatures similar to Monday afternoon. However, a cold front will move through early, bringing drier air and increasing sun, but lowering temps. Afternoon temperatures will like be in the mid 30s for most on Tuesday, with highs being achieved in the early morning hours, ranging from 41 to 51 degrees. Due to the warm nature of Tuesday morning and the time from when precipitation ends to when temperatures drop below freezing, I am not very concerned about black ice at this point. Wednesday high temperatures will be around the same as temperatures Tuesday afternoon, ranging from 32 to 41 degrees. Clouds will increase on Wednesday ahead of our next storm, which I will talk about below.

Now, About Thanksgiving

The Thanksgiving forecast is ALWAYS a tricky one. There have been many years (potentially including this year) where storms have disrupted travel in the Northeast. Last year, a low pressure system moved inland, bringing with it high winds and heavy rain, but no snow. This year I am getting concerned about the potential for a low pressure system to develop Tuesday near North Carolina, and track parallel to the East Coast. There are many, many track potentials for this system, which determines the eventual impacts. The ECMWF model is persistent that a storm will travel up the east coast, then inland towards Maine and has been for the past few runs. This would bring mainly rain to the coast and foothills, with big snows in the mountains and far Northern areas. We then have the GFS (Seems like a nice compromise at the moment), which tracks the storm just offshore, bringing some light to moderate snow to coastal areas, with little or nothing in the mountains and the far north. We then have the Canadian model, which takes the low offshore, no problem. I urge you to stay tuned in the coming days as this forecast gets ironed out, to determine any potential impacts. 

Thanksgiving Storm Track Potentials and Impacts. Map Courtesy of: AccuWeather

Thanksgiving Storm Track Potentials and Impacts. Map Courtesy of: AccuWeather

Western Maine Weather 5-Day Outlook

Western Maine Weather 5-Day Outlook - Issued Nov 22 2014

Western Maine Weather 5-Day Outlook – Issued Nov 22 2014

Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information.

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe! 

Tagged with: , , , ,
Posted in General

11.21.14 #MEwx Temps Rise Gradually For Western #Maine; Windswept #Rain Monday; #Thanksgiving A Concern

Saturday Starts A Brief Warm Up

SAT

After a bone chilling night with temps starting Saturday in the single digits over the north country to near 20° at the coast, the mercury slowly begins to march upward. Arctic high pressure responsible for the latest blast moves offshore off the MidAtlantic states, and sets up a southwesterly flow, which brings up warmer air from the south. As cold as the air has been for the past few days, it’s going to take awhile for interior areas of the region to climb above freezing, while the areas south of the foothills will notice the difference fairly quickly. With the warmer air, clouds are likely to increase in the afternoon, more noticeable in the mountains. Highs will reach the upper 20s north to upper 30s south. Winds out of the southwest will range from 10-20 mph.

For Saturday night, a few light snow showers / squalls are possible which may slick the roads up a bit. Temperatures to start Sunday morning will range in the low 20s to low 30s.

Sunday sees a few spot rain showers in the mountains, but the rest of the region appears dry. More sunshine further south through the afternoon, then all regions see clouds on the increase late in the day. Highs for Sunday range in the upper 30s north to low 50s along the shores.

A Rainy To Start Thanksgiving Week

12z GFS T1534 Beta Model at

12z GFS T1534 Beta Model IDEA at 1 PM Monday

A very intense storm will begin to take shape early Sunday as a storm over southern Saskatchewan merges with a developing storm over eastern Colorado. The two combine energy over the Great Lakes Sunday night into the wee hours of Monday morning. A warm front develops out ahead of it and advances into the region. Rain showers and perhaps a thundershower are possible during the day. Given the intense nature of the storm, winds will pick up out of the south at 25-35 mph; all coastal areas may see gusts in the 40-45 mph range. Folks in areas susceptible to power outages should plan accordingly.  At this point, it does not appear to have much rain associated with this, roughly a half-inch or so. Flooding may not be an issue, but flying debris may be.

12z GFS T1534 Beta Model IDEA for Max High Temperatures Between 1-7 PM

12z GFS T1534 Beta Model IDEA for Max High Temperatures Between 1-7 PM

Yes, this model indicates 60° is possible over far southern York County, and the 12z European Model agrees in similar fashion. Many coastal interior areas up into the Capital District appear to push well into the 50s. Take a picture. This may be the last time the region sees temps this high for awhile.

Western Maine Weather Five Day Outlook

FD112114

The rest of the five day outlook shows showers ending early on Tuesday, with a cooling westerly wind drying the region out. Wednesday starts off cool and mostly sunny, but what happens after that is a bit of a question mark.

…And About Thanksgiving

12z GFS T1534 Beta Model IDEA for

12z GFS T1534 Beta Model IDEA for 1 AM Thursday

As I mentioned yesterday on Facebook about the potential for a storm to impact the region, that idea is still on the table. Models are NOT in complete agreement on this idea, however, but the potential is there. The Friday 12z GFS parallel (T1534) beta model &  the last two runs of the European are similar in ideas of a coastal system developing. In comparison, the Canadian GGEM & operational GFS aren’t interested in this idea for now. There are still a number of question marks on whether it will develop closer the shorelines or further offshore out of harms way. The one thing consistent in all guidance at this point is that cold air appears to have a grip over the region, which if a storm does develop, would mean snow. Timing, amounts, potential impacts are too far out at this point to dare a guess. Consider this a friendly advisement to stay tuned on this.

Western Maine Weather will continue to track and advise in our upcoming updates.

The next update will come tomorrow morning on Facebook. Thanks as always for your support of Western Maine Weather! ~Mike

Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information.

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe! 

Tagged with: , , , ,
Posted in General, Winter 2014-15

11-20-14 #MEwx THURSDAY EVENING UPDATE – CHILLY TOMORROW AND SATURDAY, NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT WEEK?

Good Evening Everyone! For the people who don’t know me, I am Bobby Koenig, I have been forecasting the weather since 2011 and just recently joined Western Maine Weather. I’m here this evening filling in for Mike while he’s busy. I’m excited to be posting here and can’t wait to start doing more stuff.

Friday

Tomorrow will definitely be the coldest day of this stretch of weather that we’ve had. Temperatures will be around 30 degrees with some spots not even making it into the 30s and staying in the upper teens. There will also still be a possibility of some snow flurries in the mountains tomorrow with northwest winds 15-25 mph.10407195_10152809202111276_1455870400766818286_n

Friday night will feature mostly clear skies with low temperatures in the single-digits to around 20. Northwest winds around 10-15 mph will continue to gust up to 30 mph.

Potential Storm Monday

On Monday we will see some rain as a low pressure system in Canada will drag a trough through the area. this will bring us some rain but since we will be on the warm side of the jetstream we won’t see any snow. High temperatures on Monday will climb up into the 50s which is warm for this time of year.

1660224_10152809202166276_8783982283888870693_n

12z GFS 6 hour Precipitation Forecast For Monday

Thanksgiving Cool down

We will warm up for the first part of next week but by Thanksgiving we will start to cool off to around normal temperatures for time of year. Although this graphic doesn’t say anything about rain late next week we are watching the possibility of some occurring. Stay tuned!

10805645_10152809202141276_5445497045257984666_n

Western Maine Weather 5-Day Outlook

10734237_10152809202156276_7615993455936980389_n

Thanks for all of the support, it means a lot to the team. Next update will be Tomorrow morning on Facebook. Have a great Thanksgiving Everyone!

~Bobby Koenig (@KoenigWX on Twitter)


Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information.

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe! 

Posted in General

11-19-14 #MEwx WEDNESDAY EVENING UPDATE – CHILLY LATE-WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WARMER NEXT WEEK

Good evening, all! Alex Reed here with your Western Maine Weather evening update on this Wednesday.

Chilly Late Week

We are definitely in for a chilly late week. Tonight, lows will level out between 13 and 22 degrees, with snow showers possible for all areas. Thursday will still feel cold, with snow showers retreating to the mountains and mostly sunny skies (more clouds in the mountains). Highs will average 28 degrees to 41 degrees. 10290625_10152807514746276_6425128507417409332_nFriday mountain snow showers will remain possible, with highs much cooler than Thursday’s, averaging between 22 and 32 degrees. Saturday will feel similar to Friday, with sun in the morning, and clouds on the increase during the afternoon. Highs will average out between 22 and 34 degrees. Here’s a map of projected wind chills around 7 AM Friday, as you can see, many areas will see wind chills in the teens:

10731171_10152807514791276_9073190176802511741_nSaturday will be similar to Friday. Clouds will however be on the increase, and highs will average between 22 and 34 degrees.

Sunday will be a bit warmer than Saturday, with a shower possible in the mountains, and highs averaging between 36 and 48 degrees.

Warmer Early Next Week, With Some Rain

1505203_10152807514741276_9040403252469567738_n

Most models are now indicating that a warm front will cross the area early Monday, which could bring some showers. Low pressure will then approach from the west, spreading precipitation into the area as it does so. The main precipitation should hold off until the late-morning hours of Monday. This will likely be an all rain event for the area, which is a relief after the past few weeks. It will also be much warmer, with highs on Monday ranging between 46 and 58 degrees. As of right now, the rain doesn’t appear to be enough to cause much concern of flooding, but some urban and poor drainage flooding is possible, as usual. Areas with any snow on the ground will be more vulnerable to that.

Western Maine Weather 5-Day Outlook

10367813_10152807514801276_5593291785300990612_n

Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information.

Posted in General

#MEwx 11.18.14 – Cold Continues Through Saturday For Western #Maine

A Few Snow Showers Overnight Tuesday

19z HRRR Model Idea of Radar at 2 AM Wednesday

19z HRRR Model Idea of Radar at 2 AM Wednesday

Lake effect snow in Maine? For sure when the conditions are right. The northern mountains along the border may see some snow shower activity tonight, thanks to moisture associated from Lake Ontario moving eastward. I am not expecting much in the way of accumulation, but some spots may pick up an inch. For the rest of the region, I expect skies to become partly cloudy. Lows tonight will range in the teens north to right around 20° at the shorelines. Winds out of the west/northwest continue at 15-25 mph with higher gusts possible in the north country. Wind chill values will run right around 0° north to the low teens south.

A Cold Wednesday

wed

 

Winds at a 15-25 mph clip from the west/northwest continue during the day on Wednesday, and flurries and squalls continue for the higher elevations as well. Wind chills will range from the single digits north to the low 20s in the south. Actual high temps for the day will range in the low 20s for the mountains to just above freezing around the shoreline.

Western Maine Weather Five Day Outlook

FD111814

 

Looking at the rest of the period, I am still a bit concerned with Thursday. At this point, it appears the mountains stand the higher chance for snow showers & squalls. The wind shift to the southwest will help modify temperatures for the coast. The air appears to be plenty cold enough for all areas to see flakes. Ocean effect snow showers are possible for the MidCoast and DownEast Maine given the dynamic.

The short lived warm front gets quickly ushered out to sea with a weak cold front passing through Thursday night. Consequently the winds shift to the northwest, and increase for Friday. As the atmosphere clears itself, flurries for the mountains are likely. Overnight temperatures really bottom out Friday night, and with the breeze continuing, I am concerned that the first Wind Chill Advisory may be issued for the northern counties of the region. Saturday continues chilly. Generally a bright day with high level clouds increasing late ahead of a warm front. A few snow showers are likely Saturday night thanks to warmer air aloft. Sunday appears to be the pick of the weekend with all areas expected to climb above freezing.

A Warmer Start To Next Week

12z GFS Temperature Anamoly Forecast for Monday

12z GFS Temperature Anamoly Forecast for Monday

The warm front pushes through Sunday will help bring a bit of a break from the well below normal cold to start Thanksgiving week. Above normal temps appear to hang on through the middle part of next week, and then cool down to right around normal for the holiday itself. Storm wise, low pressure rides along a stalled frontal boundary just off the coast of Southern New England on Thanksgiving Day. Too far out to know for sure, but it will be tracked & monitored in the coming days.

The next update will come tomorrow morning on Facebook. Thanks as always for your support of Western Maine Weather! ~Mike

Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information.

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe! 

Tagged with: , , , ,
Posted in General, Winter 2014-15

#MEwx 11.17.14 – Bitter Cold To Settle Into Western #Maine; Clipper Watch For Thursday

Showers / Mixed Precip / Snow To End Tonight

17z HRRR Model at 1 AM Tuesday

17z HRRR Model at 1 AM Tuesday

Winter Weather Advisory continues for Northern Oxford, Northern Franklin, and Central Somerset Counties per the latest from the National Weather Service (For more details ►CLICK HERE) until 9 PM. Showers, snow, sleet & freezing rain appears to end around 8-10 PM over western and northern areas, and the last of the showers appear to exit the MidCoast between midnight and 2 AM Tuesday. Temps should hold in the low 30s to low 40s region wide through the evening.

Bitter Cold Arrives Tuesday

tue

The temperatures recorded just after midnight are likely going to be the daily highs. Low pressure associated with the cold front that brought the mixed bag of the precipitation will intensify as it moves towards Labrador by early Tuesday morning. With that, bitter cold Arctic air will get dragged down from Hudson Bay. Skies will begin to clear in the morning as the drier air arrives, but the mountains are likely to stay in the clouds with periodic flurries & squalls through out the day.

TuePMwchill

12z GFS Wind Chill Forecast Idea for 7 PM Tuesday

The mountains will feel wind chills in the single digits by early afternoon, and most of the rest of the region will feel single digits by early evening. Temps that started in the low 30s/ low 40s will tumble to the mid-teens to low-20s soon after nightfall. Tuesday night will be one to keep the stove going and grab an extra quilt for, as temps start Wednesday in the teens in all areas, and wind chill readings close to 0° away from the coast.

Wednesday offers a mix of sun & clouds and continued breezy. Mountains may see a few flurries during the day, but otherwise a quiet. Wind chills do not appear as bad as Tuesday, but with winds at 15-25 mph from the west, the air will still have a bite to it.

Alberta Clipper May Surprise Thursday

12z Canadian GGEM at 1 PM Thursday

12z Canadian GGEM at 1 PM Thursday

This is the time of year where I see pieces of upper level energy like the model idea above and become suspicious when they don’t have much moisture. The 00z European model hinted at accumulating snow showers for the region, but backed off on the idea in this morning’s 12z run. Knowing the Great Lakes are ice free in combination of the trajectory of the energy throws up a reason for concern with this system. The region may yet again see some flurries & squalls, or perhaps a stray light shower along the coast from this event. Stay tuned.

Western Maine Weather Five Day Outlook

FD111714

The rest of the five day outlook calls for cooler temps for Friday, and colder yet for Saturday as high pressure settles in. If you are headed to the championship football games, prepare to bundle up as wind chills will likely be in the teens. To complete the rest of the weekend, Sunday may see a shower or flurry early as a warm front arrives. Temps appear to  rise into the mid-30s over the mountains to the mid-40s for southern & coastal areas.

The next update will come tomorrow morning on Facebook. Thanks as always for your support of Western Maine Weather! ~Mike

Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information.

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe! 

Tagged with: , , , ,
Posted in General, Winter 2014-15

11-16-14 #MEwx Sunday Evening Update – Messy 36 Hours On Tap In #Maine

Good evening, everyone! Alex Reed here with an update on the wintry mix Monday and Monday night, and the cooler weather behind it.

TONIGHT I expect clouds to continue. Lows will range from 24 and 31 degrees. Some light wintry mix will move into southern areas just before Dawn.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for snow/sleet and freezing rain for Franklin County and Somerset County from 9 AM Monday to 9 PM Monday. You can check those out here: http://www.weather.gov/gyx/

MONDAY

Monday will feature what we like to call, simply, a mess. For starters, this situation is what is referred to in the forecasting industry as “fluid”. Think of spilling a glass of water, and the shape changes the water goes through as you spill it, and that’s going to be comparable to the forecast for Monday and Monday evening. First of all, here’s a graphic depicting the general situation around mid-day Monday (courtesy of AccuWeather) StormSnapshotMonTeasterAs you can see, most of the area will be seeing a mixed bag of precipitation by that point, with the immediate coastline mainly switched over towards rain and the mountains hanging on to snow. The hard part to forecast about this storm is something called “cold air damming” it’s basically what it sounds like, when cold air practically dams itself in at the surface. Sometimes, warm air tends to ride OVER the cold air, creating rain in the upper atmosphere, which falls to the surface as FREEZING RAIN. I am concerned about the potential for freezing rain over much of the region, especially just inland of the coast early Monday morning. Here is my thinking: Coast starts as snow/sleet mix, turns to rain/snow mix, and eventually plain rain during the morning hours of Monday. Foothills+Interior (Not mountains or far north) begins as snow, transitions to a sleet/snow mix, and may end up staying freezing rain for MUCH of Monday afternoon. On the other hand, it could turn to all rain during the morning. It’s really gonna depend on how long the cold air can hang on at the surface (models aren’t handling this very well, as usual). Mountains+Far Northern Areas begin as snow, transition to a snow/sleet mix and then stay freezing rain/brief interludes of rain for much of the event. This is where the biggest impacts will be felt. Here is my current thinking on snowfall for the region (This doesn’t show ice accumulation): This is my best guess. As you can see, the coast and southern areas start as a wintry mess, then turn to rain sometime during the morning hours Monday. A little bit farther inland, gets a dusting-3″ of snow before turning to a wintry mess, then eventually rain sometime during the early afternoon/late morning hours. As you head into the far north and into the mountains, you’ll see 2-5″ of snow accumulation before it goes over to a mix sometime during the late morning/early afternoon hours. You can also see that my highest area of concern for icing is within the dotted line. Places like the interior coastal plain, the foothills, and the mountains can expect a dose of ice with this one. Highs on Monday will range from 28 to 44, highest along the immediate coastline, and lowest over the mountains and far-north. 5151

When The Storm Clears Out

Precipitation should begin to clear out after midnight Tuesday. Much cooler air filters in behind the system on a westerly wind. High temperatures Tuesday will struggle into the 30′s, hovering just above freezing for many. This could create some black ice concerns after the storm, but the westerly winds may be enough to dry things up before temps drop. Wednesday highs are likely to not even get above freezing for many areas, so you should at least enjoy the warmth (although you have to contend with a wintry mix) while you can!

Mike will be back in the morning with an update on the day’s forecast, and as I said, this forecast is basically like a glass of water that you just spilled all over the place, messy and unpredictable! 

Posted in General
Follow WesternMEwx.com on WordPress.com

Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 1,307 other followers

%d bloggers like this: