7.21.14 – #MEwx SPECIAL EDITION – #SEVERE Threat Wednesday For Western #Maine

PREFACE

Hello again, everyone! It has been awhile since I have used this platform because time has been at a premium for me. I will be using this site on an as needed basis for complex weather events when I have time. Please follow me on Twitter or on Facebook (links on the right) for my latest forecasts and analysis. My hope is that I will be using this site more when time allows.

Now, onto the weather.

SEVERE THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY, JULY 23RD

wedeve

Where the region was subject to a tornado in St. Albans and a microburst in York last week, this week the atmospheric dynamics are more potent, and more concerning. As with any of these types of events, timing is critical  in what may happen. I strongly suggest that you stay updated with this event. What I am about to present is not the final word, just an idea based on current trends.

THE PLAYERS

The first player involved here, is 2-meter temperatures. This is from the 18z GFS model from Monday afternoon:

gfs_t2max_maine_17

The heat factor near the surface is key in all of this as it is part of the equation in a severe event. Forecast highs at 2 PM will be in the 80s for much of the region, 90s over interior sections, and 70s along most of the shorelines.  No doubt this will be the best seaside beach day of the summer, but under the impression that severe weather looms. Best to arrive early, and leave mid-afternoon, so not to get caught.

The second player, is moisture. To that, we look at the 18z Canadian RGEM model from Monday Afternoon:

 

rgem_pwat_mslp_neng_17

 

This a look at precipitable water forecast for the northeastern United States at 2 PM Wednesday. Many areas over much of Western Maine are pushing 2″ by this model idea. This is similar to the event of the previous week. FLASH FLOODING is going to be a concern here once again as very heavy downpours will be likely with this event.

Take the sum of those two ingredients, and it helps form Convective Available Potential Energy. This from the 12z NAM:

hires_cape_maine_55

CAPE is essentially the gas needed to drive thunderstorm activity. In this model run, it suggests that there will be plenty of CAPE around for fuel. In all honesty, I think this run is a bit on the rich side, but to give you an idea, this is very potent. Many of the storms over the Plains have this kind of CAPE to work with, and it can be quite destructive. In perspective, last week’s severe outbreak was with roughly HALF of the energy that this model idea is putting out.

Now that the gas has been configured, in order for combustion to occur, a spark needs to happen:

 

 

nam_rapid-SFC--me-48-C-lapsesfc700

Heat rises, cold air sinks. When the two come together, they cause friction between the two, molecules get moving around and things start to happen. This is the forecast temperature lapse rates between 10,000 feet to the surface at 2 PM on Wednesday. A big range like this often spells trouble. While the mid-level lapse rates aren’t that severe, the difference is enough in this case for cause for concern.

Wind shear helps get the storms moving…

nam_rapid---me-51-C-llj (1)

Thus we have the low-level jet. This is projected wind speed at roughly 5,000 feet at 5 PM Wednesday. Strong southwesterly flow aloft with strong south flow at the surface, and the atmosphere begins to spin a bit. This too, is a bit more amped than during the severe outbreak from last week.

TIMING & CONCERN AREAS

Threatlevel

This idea is SUBJECT TO CHANGE but this is as it appears for now. Not only is this a timeline, but also can be viewed as areas of most concern to moderate concern. This could be a rough go of it in the mountains again. The foothills will likely get nailed in areas quite hard as well. Coastal areas may escape the worst of it, BUT temps over the interior will likely be the warmest. Given that dynamic, the threat for the coastal interior areas will last later into the evening Wednesday until the front pushes through overnight Thursday.

PLEASE KEEP YOURSELVES UPDATED ON THIS EVENT. I will do my best to keep you updated, but don’t depend on just me. Please consult with local media as well as the National Weather Service / NOAA Weather Radio for the latest information.

My next update will be in Facebook in the morning,

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe! – Mike

 

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Posted in Severe, Summer 2014

#MEwx 4.14.14 – #Flood Concerns For Midweek; Cold Rest Of The Week

Rain And Wind Arrives Tuesday Afternoon

tue

A slow-moving cold front advances into the region Tuesday which will bring rain and wind to all areas to start out. Precipitation begins with scattered showers Tuesday morning, with rain becoming heavier in the afternoon & evening. As the front slowly slides through, winds eventually shift, dragging down cold air from Quebec, setting up the chance for snow on the backside of the event. That cold air will stay in the area as high pressure builds in Wednesday afternoon, and bring well below normal temperatures to round out the rest of the week.

 

gfs_rapid---nepoolnerc-36-C-10mgustarrows

 

During the day on Tuesday, southerly winds will pick up in intensity. Average speeds range in the 15 – 25 mph level, but gusts could exceed 40 – 50 mph late in the day heading into the evening. Once the front passes, winds will remain strong out of the northwest as cold air pours in behind it, but with gusts a bit weaker in the 30-40 mph range, and that will continue until late evening on Wednesday when high pressure takes over.

cmc_total_precip_maine_11

The above is the 12z Canadian model idea for rainfall totals. This idea is somewhat of a consensus of model ideas, on the average of an inch or so. I expect locally higher amounts to fall. The 12z GFS idea had as much as 3″ around the Presidentials and the 12z European had an inch and a half in the mountains. Safe to say for discussion purposes that 1″ is the rough starting point; how much more beyond that depends on the movement of the front that is poised to stall over the area for 8-12 hours before an upper level low from the northwest catches up to it and pushes the front out of here Wednesday morning.

Flood Forecasts of Area Rivers

Flood watches are posted for the ENTIRE state of Maine ahead of this event, the main reason is the amount of snow in the north country. Given the dynamics here, it doesn’t appear that bad overall, but the potential is there for minor flooding to occur in several areas.

Rumford

 

Auburn

A look at the Androscoggin River shows a sharp spike in water levels in Rumford Tuesday afternoon, that associated with the above normal temperatures from Monday. The added runoff with the rain coming will drive levels up further Wednesday morning. In Auburn, it will take about 24 hours for all that water to travel down from Rumford, and may cause a few more problems as flood levels could reach 3 feet above flood stage before dropping during the day on Thursday. Rumford is only expected to peak at a foot above flood level, so impacts will likely be minor overall.

Augusta

The Kennebec in Augusta is predicted to steadily increase over the next couple of days and top out just over four feet above flood stage overnight on Wednesday into Thursday. This will likely be enough to cause issues along Water Street in Hallowell and other low-lying areas in and around the capital city until Friday at the earliest.

Mercer

The Sandy River is going to come ever so close to flood stage in Mercer, and folks in that area will need to watch levels closely.

Roxbury

To round out the view of the river forecast sampling, the Swift River in Roxbury is one that habitually floods in spring time, and at many times during the summer in heavy rain events. It is predicted to tip its banks by a couple of feet early Wednesday morning and then drop off about as quick as it started, with it falling below flood stage midday Wednesday.

I WILL CAUTION EVERYONE by saying these forecasts could change if rainfall totals increase, and if ice jams play a larger role in water flow and where it flows. Issues like that cannot be easily predicted. If you live in a flood prone area, please stay up to date with the National Weather Service for the latest on river advisories and warnings. If you come across a flooded roadway, don’t risk it. Turn around and don’t drown.

Five-Day Forecast – Coast

Coast

After a breezy and much cooler day on Wednesday, overnight temperatures plunge below freezing at night for the next several days. Daytime temps will gradually warm up a bit toward the weekend. For now, there about a 20% chance for a shower for Saturday.

Five-Day Forecast – Foothills & Mountains

hills

There could be some slick spots around the foothills and mountains Wednesday morning as temperatures drop to January levels, and it will remain there until mid-morning on Thursday when they begin to rise above 32°. A very frosty start is on tap for Friday, and temps start to climb out of the basement after that.

If there is a silver lining to all of this, the cold weather coming in behind the front will slow down the snowmelt considerably, and that helps ease an extended period of flooding concerns. It’s also good news for the ski areas still in operation, as their snow base won’t get completely wiped out from this recent warm up and rain on the way, and help extend spring skiing a bit longer.

NOTE: Due to my busy schedule of late, updates on this site will be infrequent. The Western Maine Weather Facebook Page will be updated regularly, and when I can take the time to update this page, I will.

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information.

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe! 

 

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Posted in General, Spring 2014

#MEwx 4.8.14 – A Breezy Wednesday; Weekend Outlook

Wind Is The Word

wed

 

The storm that was responsible for heavy rain over the region Tuesday departs for the Canadian Maritimes, and strengthens. As a result, winds will be left in its wake, gusting out of the west / northwest at 25 mph along the coast, 35 mph in the mountains, and will subside by evening. The higher elevations may see a morning snow flurry, and the sun will be in a battle with the clouds to work in through midday. South of Route 2, more sun than clouds will start the day, and sunshine will increase toward the afternoon. Daytime temps will be in the upper 30s for the mountains, to the low 50s along the coast.

Wednesday night, skies will be mostly clear, with temps falling into the upper teens north to the upper 20s south.

Five-Day Forecast – Coast

Coast

Five-Day Forecast – Foothills & Mountains

hills

In looking at the five-day forecast, the coldest morning will be Thursday, and then will trend toward warmer starts for the rest of the period. Weak areas of high pressure and weak cold fronts will keep a few clouds around at time over the next few days. The shoreline towns will feel the effects of an ocean sea breeze on Thursday and Friday, which will keep daily highs in the upper 40s for Thursday, and mid-50s on Friday.

A Look At Temperature Trend

gefs_t2anom_by5_conus_49

The battle between cold & warm appears to continue into the middle of the month, with cold getting the upper hand for the eastern two-thirds of the country. While it won’t be ridiculously cold as it was in March, temperatures overall may range from 3°-5° below normal as time heads toward the middle part of the month. Chances for snow are dwindling by the day, but I am not quite comfortable declaring winter dead just yet. The mountains may see a bit more snow before all is said and done, while the chances for the foothills and coast diminish as the calendar gets closer to mid-April.

NOTE: Due to my busy schedule of late, updates on this site will be infrequent. The Western Maine Weather Facebook Page will be updated regularly, and when I can take the time to update this page, I will.

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information.

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe! 

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Posted in General, Spring 2014

#MEwx 4.2.14 – Dry Period Continues; Saturday Storm Update

A Bit Cooler Thursday

thu

 

Slightly cooler temperatures will prevail over the region in the aftermath of the cold front that passed through the region on Wednesday. Mountains will see a few more clouds, the coast a bit more sun. High temperatures will range near the mid-30s north to mid-40s south. Winds will range from the northwest at 5-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph over the mountains early in the morning, then again later in the afternoon. Thursday night, partly cloudy skies with lows in the 20s. Winds will settle overnight to less than 10 mph.

Looking Ahead To Saturday

nam_rapid---nepoolnerc-78-C-925rh_tmp_hgt_wdb2

 

This graphic is of this morning’s run of the 12z NAM for atmospheric temperatures at roughly 2,500 feet above sea level. The purple line is the 0°C (32°F) line. Colder temperatures are above that line, warmer, indicated by red to the south. While by this time the storm will be winding down, I present this to you as my area of concern for mixed precipitation. Most areas will start off with snow overnight Friday in Saturday. I don’t expect coastal locales will see much, if any accumulations for this event for now, but with overnight lows right around 32°, icy spots are likely to form. Further away from the coast may change the game a little bit. The coastal interior, foothills, Capital District may see an inch of snow, with sleet & freezing rain mixed in. The mountains appear mostly snow, 2-4″ before a change to sleet & freezing rain, then a brief period of rain, then flurries & squalls after the front pushes through around midday.

The foothills, coastal interior and Capital District appear to climb above freezing around mid to late morning, so travel conditions will improve as the day moves on. Coastal areas should climb above  freezing soon after daylight thanks to the southwest flow out ahead of the front. Southern York County may stay all rain with this one.

This is just an early call at this point, subject to change. I will update on this again tomorrow.

Five-Day Forecast – Coast

Coast

Five Day Forecast – Foothills & Mountains

Hills

The rest of the five-day forecast shows Sunday to be a decent day, with increasing sunshine throughout the day. Monday appears to feel like spring everywhere, as a strong southwesterly flow will send temperatures soaring well into the mountains. Tuesday appears to be a similar in pattern as Saturday’s event, and will have to be watched to see if the morning commute may be impacted in the foothills, north.

Never miss a post by signing up for instant FREE email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest information.

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe! 

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Posted in General, Spring 2014

#MEwx 4.1.14 – A Decent Wednesday; An End To A Cold March; Weekend Outlook

Dry For Most

wed

All is all a fair day is expected over the region. A Colorado Low heads into Northern Quebec, and with it, a very weak cold front comes through the mountain areas. I can’t rule out an isolated flurry for the mountains, and a slim chance for a spot shower elsewhere, otherwise it will be a dry day. Temps will range in the upper 30s north to low 30s south. Coastal areas will chill down in the afternoon when a sea breeze kicks up in the afternoon. Fog is possible along coastal areas, also. Winds will be out of the southeast at 5-15 mph, dropping toward evening. Skies will remain partly cloudy Wednesday night with lows into the 20s everywhere, with perhaps a high teen around Rangeley.

The End Of A Very Cold March

coldmarch

Courtesy WGME, used with permission, thanks Charlie & Craig!

Still waiting on official numbers from the National Weather Service, but if the above number is right, this would have been the fourth coldest March on record for Portland. Last weekend’s storm is really what saved the region from being perilously close to number 1. To the north and east, the National Weather Service in Caribou reported that Caribou broke their all time record set in 1939 by two-tenths of a degree. Bangor tied its record, also set in 1939.

march

All in all, Northern New England ended the month between 8°-9° below normal. While the temperatures this week will be pleasant compared to what the region endured through March, we’re not out of the woods for another cold snap. The GFS model is signalling a deep trough over the eastern half of the country next week. The good news is, it won’t last long.

Five-Day Forecast – Coast

Coast

Five-Day Forecast – Foothills & Mountains

hills

Looking at the five-day forecast, all in all a decent period overall. Coastal areas will feel the sea breeze on Wednesday & Friday, which will keep afternoon temperatures down. Clouds increase for all Friday afternoon, with precipitation starting off as a mix for most Friday night. Temperatures will warm on Saturday with a southeast wind flow. Most areas will switch from mix to rain south of Route 2; north of there is a bit circumspect at this point. Guidance is hinting that the region near Sugarloaf may stay all snow, but confidence is low, for now. This event won’t be the big washout like Sunday, with roughly a half-inch of liquid involved here. Winds will shift to the west / northwest Saturday afternoon, which will bring cooler air down from Canada. The mountains can expect backside snow flurries and showers, while areas south will begin to dry out. After a cool, but dry day on Sunday, Monday will see clouds on the increase ahead of the next event for Tuesday. This is subject to change, but that is the way it appears for now.

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Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest updates. 

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe! 

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Posted in General, Spring 2014

#MEwx 3.31.14 – Warmer And Dry Until Saturday; #Flood Potential On The Rise; WMW Poll

Tuesday Starts A Dry, Warmer Trend

TUE

 

After a couple of very damp days that dumped well over 2″ of rain and brought 7″+ of snow to the mountains (totals here), the region heads into a drier, more seasonable pattern for the rest of the workweek. Skies will be bright and relatively cloud free over the region for Tuesday. High temperatures for the day will range in the 40s for most of the region.  Winds will be gusty out of the north at 20-30 mph early, then diminishing toward the afternoon. Tuesday night may see a few high level clouds from a Colorado Low passing through northwestern Quebec. Winds continue to settle to less than 15 mph by Wednesday morning. Lows will bottom out in the 20s.

Flood Potential On The Rise

fp1_todayThe Northeast River Forecast Center released an update Monday morning on flood potential for the northeastern United States. It had upgraded the region from normal to above normal conditions. The text of its latest weekly discussion for Western Maine, from last Thursday, is here below. It is slightly outdated for coastal concerns, but relevant for points north:

000
FGUS71 KGYX 201757
ESFGYX

MEC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-023-025-027-031-NHC001-003-007-009-013
-015-017-019-211915-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
130 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN... 
CENTRAL... AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE IS ABOVE NORMAL. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IS ALSO ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS IS THE SIXTH IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED HYDROLOGIC 
OUTLOOKS ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASON. THESE OUTLOOKS 
WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE END OF THE SNOW MELT 
SEASON...AND WILL ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON A 
NUMBER OF FACTORS. 

...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME HAS NOT CHANGE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WITH A 
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CONTINUES TO DRAW COLD ARCTIC AIR 
SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
NEXT WEEK. THE COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER HAS ALLOWED THE SNOWPACK 
TO INCREASE MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST 2 WEEKS. MANY LOCATIONS IN 
CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE WESTERN MAINE RECEIVED 10 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOW 
IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE WILL BEGIN TO 
SEE THIS COLD PATTERN EASE A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO THE BEGINNING OF 
APRIL. THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 
DAY FORECAST CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

...MAINE...

SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 6 TO 18 INCHES NEAR THE COAST TO 18 TO 40 
INCHES FROM SOUTHERN INTERIOR AREAS TO THE FOOTHILLS. FROM THE 
MOUNTAINS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 3 TO 4 FEET 
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ANDOVER REPORTED 49 INCHES OF SNOW ON 
THE GROUND THIS MORNING AND PITTSTON FARM REPORTED 50 INCHES.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES NEAR THE COAST TO 5 
TO 9 FROM SOUTHERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE FOOTHILLS. FROM THE 
MOUNTAINS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 7 
TO 11 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS 
ABOVE NORMAL. SNOW SURVEYS DONE IN THE MOUNTAINS 2 DAYS AGO 
INDICATED MANY LOCATIONS WITH OVER 10 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

THE LONG TERM PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL 
MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE AND SOUTHERN 
NEW HAMPSHIRE. SOIL MOISTURE IS IN THE NORMAL RANGE. AS REPORTED BY 
THE USGS GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL IN WESTERN MAINE 
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. WITH THE DEEP SNOWPACK IN 
PLACE IT IS EXPECTED THAT GROUNDWATER LEVELS WILL RECHARGE TO NEAR 
OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THE ANDROSCOGGIN RIVER BASIN WERE 38 PERCENT 
FULL WHICH IS 6.1 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. RESERVOIRS IN THE KENNEBEC 
BASIN WERE 35 PERCENT FULL WHICH IS 7.8 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL.

WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS SPRING.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVERS ARE ICE COVERED AS ICE HAS BEEN THICKENING IN WESTERN MAINE 
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR MOST OF FEBRUARY AND MARCH. ICE IS QUITE THICK 
ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 FEET. THE USGS MEASURED ICE THICKNESS ON THE 
KENNEBEC RIVER NEAR RICHMOND AND FOUND THE ICE TO BE 1.6 FEET THICK 
WITH 0.7 FEET OF BLACK ICE. THE USGS TOOK AN ICE MEASUREMENT ON THE 
BEARCAMP RIVER IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FOUND THE ICE TO BE THE 1.7 FEET 
THICK. IN GENERAL THE ICE IS ABOUT 1 TO 2 FEET THICK WITH RIVERS IN 
THE MOUNTAINS SEEING ICE THICKNESSES A BIT ABOVE 2 FEET. 

RIVER FLOWS ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL 
DUE TO SNOWMELT IS ABOVE NORMAL. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO ICE JAMS 
IS ABOVE NORMAL. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL PROCEED INTO APRIL 
WITH A DEEP AND WATER LADEN SNOWPACK IN PLACE. THE FARTHER WE 
PROCEED INTO THE SPRING SEASON WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK THE GREATER THE 
RISK OF A RAPID WARMING ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN A QUICK 
SNOWMELT AND MAJOR FLOODING. 

MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...HOW 
MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF TIME...IS THE MOST IMPORTANT 
FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF FLOODING.

ANOTHER WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM 
FRIDAY APRIL 4.

$$

TFH

I will post the next update from NERFC on Friday.

Five-Day Forecast – Coast

coast

Five-Day Forecast – Foothills & Mountains

hills

 Coastal areas will enjoy a bit of a warmer trend, as will the mountains. A weak cold front drops down through the mountains on Wednesday  which will chill the north country a little bit. The next system to impact the region is Saturday, which could bring moderate rainfall and a wintry mix for the mountains. The maple tree taps should be in favorable production this week as above freezing days and below freezing nights should get the sap flowing at a typical early spring pace.

WesternMEwx.com Poll Question

In order to get a better understanding of where my most avid readers are, I would like to find out your geographical location. I have listed out the five regions that I cover. To clear up any misunderstandings, I have listed out the areas by counties in case you aren’t sure.

Mountains: Northern Oxford, Northern Franklin, Central Somerset Counties

Foothills: Androscoggin, Southern Oxford, Southern Franklin, Southern Somerset Counties

Capital District: Kennebec County

MidCoast: Sagadahoc, Lincoln, Knox, Waldo Counties

SW Coast: York, Cumberland Counties

Outside Observer: Anywhere else outside of the region.

This is an anonymous poll – this won’t be tracked in anyway. I appreciate your help in advance!

If this page should become idle, please check Facebook for the latest updates, or follow on Twitter @WesternMEwx.

Thank you as always for your support of Western Maine Weather on Facebook / WesternMEwx.com / @WesternMEwx on Twitter through your readership, shares, likes and retweets. No outside money, no media influence… the success of this is solely because of YOU, the readers! If you like what you see, please consider sharing with your friends! 

Never miss a post by signing up for instant email updates. You can do so with confidence that your address will never be sold to a third-party spammer. Scroll back up and look for the link to sign up at the bottom of the right side menu. Emails are mobile phone & tablet friendly, too! 

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest updates. 

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe! 

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Posted in General, Spring 2014

#MEwx 3.30.14 – A Messy Monday; Mostly Dry For Remainder Of The Week

 

Latest Warnings & Advisories As Of Sunday Afternoon

nwswarn

***For the latest information from the National Weather Service, please ► CLICK HERE

Western Maine Weather Outlook

headlines

Second Wave To Bring Snow, Sleet, Freezing Rain & Rain For Most On Monday

monam

The sucker punch to Sunday’s weather comes in the form of a trailing area of low pressure that will work its way along the stalled front Sunday night into Monday. The good news is that it is certainly not as juicy as what the region experienced to end the weekend. However, it is potent enough that it will lay down enough of a wintry mix away from the immediate coastline to make the Monday morning commute slick for much of the region.

ecmwfued---nepoolnerc-18-C-850hgt

Temperatures away from the immediate coastline will dip a couple of degrees below freezing overnight tonight. The atmosphere at around ~5,000 feet (pictured here) will actually be warmer than the surface. In this circumstance, Mount Washington may be the warmest location in the region as the term warm air aversion will keep the summit warmer than the valley. Any of the areas in green or lime green are subject to a wintry mix in this situation. With cold air damming in place at the lower level, this sets up a sleet & freezing rain situation. The GFS & European models are on board with the idea that most of the precipitation associated with this second system will hug the coastline and range into the Oxford Hills / Capital District area.  North of there, it doesn’t appear to be much outside of patchy freezing drizzle in spots, or a light snow shower closer to the mountains.

For now the National Weather Service has Winter Weather Advisories posted through 8 AM for the southern foothills to the interior coast. There is a chance that it may be extended due to any cold air damming. If it isn’t extended, be advised of potential spotty slick areas through the region until noon anyway. With forecast high temperatures in the mid-30s, it may take a while for interior locales to get above 32° in all areas south of Route 2.

As far as accumulations go, the most snow will likely be in the Jackman area at 2-4″, 1-3″ around Carrabassett Valley / Rangeley / Eustis area, then it drops off quickly. Up to one tenth of an inch of  ice from freezing rain is the idea for most interior locales.

ecmwfued---nepoolnerc-30-C-10mgustarrows

As the storm passes through the region, winds will pick up in the afternoon, gusting between 30-40 mph over a fair amount of the area. If the Winter Weather Advisories get extended, the wind will certainly help reinforce the cold air at the lower level with it dumping in out of the north. Most of the precipitation will have exited the area at this point, however MidCoast areas may see a couple of showers, and the mountains may see scattered snow showers & flurries until after sundown Monday night.

Five-Day Forecast – Coast

Coast

Five-Day Forecast – Foothills & Mountains

Hills

In the five-day outlooks, the only blemish is a chance of a flurry for the mountains on Thursday, otherwise it will be dry and close to seasonable temperatures. A very weak cold front works through the mountains Wednesday afternoon which will cool the hills a bit, but they will rebound on Friday.

As far as next weekend goes, it looks similar to this past weekend with a cold front working through on Saturday that could bring heavy rain with it. I will update on that when it gets closer.

If this page should become idle, please check Facebook for the latest updates, or follow on Twitter @WesternMEwx.

Forecasts can and do change. Please consult with the National Weather Service and local media for the latest updates. 

Stay updated, stay alert & stay safe! 

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Posted in General, Spring 2014
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